Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Khorfakkan face Al Bataeh.

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Full Analysis

Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium plays host to Khorfakkan versus Al Bataeh in Pro League (matchday 21). Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 15:55 UK time.

Form

Khorfakkan (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, Khorfakkan have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Al Bataeh's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Al Bataeh away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Khorfakkan, 1.50 for Al Bataeh — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Khorfakkan, 2 for Al Bataeh and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Nov 2024, ended Khorfakkan 3–1 Al Bataeh — a Khorfakkan win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Khorfakkan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khorfakkan 67% and Al Bataeh 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Khorfakkan 67% | Al Bataeh 65%). Note also that Al Bataeh surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Khorfakkan recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 39% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.24 xG and Al Bataeh 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.062 / defence 0.872 | Al Bataeh attack 0.955 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.350. Data: built from Khorfakkan's last 46 games and Al Bataeh's last 46.

Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 39% | Draw 28% | Al Bataeh 33%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.58 | Draw 3.59 | Al Bataeh 3.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Khorfakkan 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Bataeh 60% (last 10 away games).

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