Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-0 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Baniyas SC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai welcome Baniyas SC to Rashid Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 February 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record at Rashid Stadium: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rashid Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baniyas SC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai: 5 wins from 7 previous clashes against 2 for Baniyas SC, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 5–1 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Baniyas SC trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 67% and Baniyas SC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 81% | Baniyas SC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.05 xG and Baniyas SC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.220 / defence 0.730 | Baniyas SC attack 0.945 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.373. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating of 0.730 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 43 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63% | Draw 21% | Baniyas SC 17%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Baniyas SC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% | Baniyas SC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63% | Draw 21% | Baniyas SC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 53% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.05 / Baniyas SC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.220 / def 0.730 | Baniyas SC attack 0.945 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Baniyas SC xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 16:15 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2 - 0 Baniyas SC.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 63% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC?
Record (7 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5W | Draws 0 | Baniyas SC 2W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Baniyas SC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack rating (1.22) and Baniyas SC's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 2.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baniyas SC's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.87
17%
6.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
3.00
0.95
Baniyas SC xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
6.03
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
13%
7.77
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
2%
46.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 0.95 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have picked up 2.43 PPG on a 32W 6D 4L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC's form line: 12W 9D 21L from 42 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the form team by 1.36 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baniyas SC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have posted 2.52 PPG from 21 outings (17W 2D 2L).
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 5W 3D 13L from 21 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.69 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.17 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 32W 6D 4L in their last 42 games (2.43 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 12W 9D 21L in their last 42 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Baniyas SC away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.52 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Baniyas SC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1
Draws
2
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 7, Baniyas SC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Baniyas SC 2-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62%, Baniyas SC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 57% for Baniyas SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Baniyas SC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Baniyas SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 52% of Baniyas SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 57% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Baniyas SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Baniyas SC 2-0 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.05 xG and Baniyas SC 0.95 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Baniyas SC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.22 / defence 0.73 against Baniyas SC attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63% | Draw 21% | Baniyas SC 17%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 81%, Baniyas SC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.