Khorfakkan 3-0 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Khorfakkan take on Al-Dhafra.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Khorfakkan welcome Al-Dhafra to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 September 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 0W 2D 2L from 4 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Dhafra — All Games: 0W 1D 3L from 4 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.25 PPG. Last five: L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Al-Dhafra have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Khorfakkan 0.50 PPG, Al-Dhafra 0.25 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Khorfakkan trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Dhafra trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 50% versus Al-Dhafra 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Khorfakkan 50% | Al-Dhafra 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.04 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.775 / defence 1.162 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.732 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.066. Khorfakkan's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Khorfakkan games / 4 Al-Dhafra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 34% | Draw 39% | Al-Dhafra 27%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.94 | Draw 2.56 | Al-Dhafra 3.70. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Khorfakkan 50% | Al-Dhafra 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 34% | Draw 39% | Al-Dhafra 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 43% | xG Khorfakkan 1.04 / Al-Dhafra 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.775 / def 1.162 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.732 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al-Dhafra xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 15:45 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Khorfakkan 3 - 0 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 34% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 27% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-D-D-L. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Khorfakkan's attack at 0.78x the league average against Al-Dhafra's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Dhafra's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.96
39%
2.54
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
1.94
0.91
Al-Dhafra xG
2.96
34%
Home win
2.54
39%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
10%
10.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 0.91 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 0W 2D 2L from 4 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Dhafra, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 3L across 4 games — 0.25 PPG, with L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khorfakkan on 0.50 PPG, Al-Dhafra on 0.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Khorfakkan are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 0.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Early Season
Al-Dhafra
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Khorfakkan have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2021, when Khorfakkan won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Al-Dhafra specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Khorfakkan
0
Draws
2
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra?
From 7 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 5, Al-Dhafra have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Khorfakkan 2-0 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 50%, Al-Dhafra 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Khorfakkan) and 25% (Al-Dhafra).
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan have failed to score in 50% of games; Al-Dhafra in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al-Dhafra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 50% of Al-Dhafra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 25% of Al-Dhafra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Khorfakkan run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Dhafra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al-Dhafra 3-0 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.04 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.91 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Khorfakkan beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Dhafra landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.78 / defence 1.16 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.73 / defence 1.19, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 34% | Draw 39% | Al-Dhafra 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Khorfakkan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 50%, Al-Dhafra 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 0.50 PPG, Al-Dhafra 0.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock. Khorfakkan scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Dhafra shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.