Baniyas SC 1-4 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sharjah FC (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Baniyas SC face Sharjah FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Baniyas SC welcome Sharjah FC to Baniyas Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 31 October 2024 at 12:50 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Baniyas SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baniyas SC's home record at Baniyas Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sharjah FC stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Sharjah FC have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Sharjah FC's 2.30 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Baniyas SC's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Sharjah FC have the better historical record — 6 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Baniyas SC.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 2–3 with Sharjah FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sharjah FC have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Baniyas SC in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baniyas SC 66% and Sharjah FC 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 62% | Sharjah FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.51 xG and Sharjah FC 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 1.017 / defence 1.097 | Sharjah FC attack 0.988 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.895 / away 1.732. Sharjah FC's defence strength of 0.783 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 32 Baniyas SC games / 32 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 31% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Sharjah FC 2.17. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Baniyas SC 70% | Sharjah FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 31 Oct 2024, 12:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 31% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Baniyas SC 1.51 / Sharjah FC 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 1.017 / def 1.097 | Sharjah FC attack 0.988 / def 0.783 | league avg home 1.895 / away 1.732 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Sharjah FC xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 12:50 on Thursday 31 October 2024 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Baniyas SC 1 - 4 Sharjah FC.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC part of?
Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 31% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC?
Record (6 meetings): Baniyas SC 0W | Draws 0 | Sharjah FC 6W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Sharjah FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Baniyas SC's attack rating (1.02) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
31%
3.22
23%
4.42
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
3.39
1.88
Sharjah FC xG
3.22
31%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
15%
6.54
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
5%
21.06
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.88 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baniyas SC come into this having played 32 games, going 9W 6D 17L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Baniyas SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sharjah FC sit at 1.78 PPG from 32 outings (15W 12D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sharjah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Baniyas SC's home form reads 7W 3D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Baniyas SC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sharjah FC have taken 1.81 points per game from 16 outings (8W 5D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 2.09 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baniyas SC have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Sharjah FC in 75%.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Early Season
Sharjah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 9W 6D 17L in their last 32 games (1.03 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 15W 12D 5L in their last 32 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.50 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2023, when Sharjah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Baniyas SC
1
Draws
7
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 2, Sharjah FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Baniyas SC 1-1 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Baniyas SC at 69%, Sharjah FC at 81%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Baniyas SC and 62% for Sharjah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Sharjah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Baniyas SC's games and 81% of Sharjah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Baniyas SC's matches and 62% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sharjah FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Baniyas SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Baniyas SC 1-4 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.51 xG and Sharjah FC 1.88 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sharjah FC outscored their 1.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 1.02 / defence 1.10 against Sharjah FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.78, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 31% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 46%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 62%, Sharjah FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.