Al-Wasl FC 1-0 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Wasl FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Al-Wasl FC welcome Al Wahda FC to Zabeel Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 January 2026 at 12:55 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Wasl FC have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Wasl FC at Zabeel Stadium this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Al-Wasl FC are significantly better at Zabeel Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Wahda FC — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Wahda FC — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Wasl FC, 2 for Al Wahda FC and 6 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Wasl FC trading profile (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al Wahda FC trading profile (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Wasl FC 63% versus Al Wahda FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 63% | Al Wahda FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.09 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.032 / defence 0.786 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.994 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.326. Al-Wasl FC's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Al-Wasl FC games / 35 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 37% | Draw 30% | Al Wahda FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Al Wahda FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Wahda FC (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Wasl FC 60% | Al Wahda FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jan 2026, 12:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 37% | Draw 30% | Al Wahda FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Al-Wasl FC 1.09 / Al Wahda FC 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.032 / def 0.786 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.994 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Al Wahda FC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 12:55 on Friday 2 January 2026 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Al-Wasl FC 1 - 0 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 37% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 0W | Draws 6 | Al Wahda FC 2W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Wasl FC's attack rating (1.03) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Al-Wasl FC's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
37%
2.73
30%
3.37
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
2.13
1.03
Al Wahda FC xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
11%
8.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.03 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Al-Wasl FC have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 18W 10D 7L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC's form line: 19W 12D 4L from 35 games, 1.97 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Wasl FC on 1.83 PPG, Al Wahda FC on 1.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Wasl FC have posted 2.11 PPG from 18 outings (11W 5D 2L).
On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 9W 6D 3L from 18 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.91 scored and 1.09 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 18W 10D 7L in their last 35 games (1.83 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 19W 12D 4L in their last 35 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 2.11 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Wasl FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2024, when Al Wahda FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Wasl FC's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Wasl FC
6
Draws
2
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 2, Al Wahda FC have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-3 Al-Wasl FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 61%, Al Wahda FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Wasl FC) and 39% (Al Wahda FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Wahda FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Al Wahda FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 44% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al-Wasl FC's recent games and 39% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Wasl FC edge out Al Wahda FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Al Wahda FC 1-0 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.09 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.03 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Wahda FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.79 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.81, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 37% | Draw 30% | Al Wahda FC 34%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 63%, Al Wahda FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Wasl FC 1.83 PPG, Al Wahda FC 1.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Wasl FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.