Al Wahda FC 3-0 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wahda FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Wahda FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah meet at Al Nahyan Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 12:45 UTC.
Form
Al Wahda FC (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Wahda FC have posted 6W 1D 3L at Al Nahyan Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Dibba Al-Fujairah have collected 0.12 PPG across 8 Pro League outings this season: 0W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.12 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.12 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's away record: 0W 1D 3L from 4 road trips in Pro League this season (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Al Wahda FC. A 1.88 PPG lead over Dibba Al-Fujairah (2.00 vs 0.12) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Al Wahda FC — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 62%.
Dibba Al-Fujairah — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 50% versus Dibba Al-Fujairah 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 75% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.87 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.200 / defence 0.979 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.554 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.364. Data: 34 Al Wahda FC games / 8 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 64% | Draw 22% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 14%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al Wahda FC (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Wahda FC at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 50% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 64% | Draw 22% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 44% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.87 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.200 / def 0.979 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.554 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
44%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 12:45 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al Wahda FC 3 - 0 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 64% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 0W-1D-7L in 8 | 0.12 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.12 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Wahda FC's attack at 1.20x the league average against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack (0.55x) against Al Wahda FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 34/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
64%
1.55
22%
4.63
14%
7.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
2.61
0.74
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
7.11
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
31%
3.25
2%
46.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 10.2 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 0.74 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Wahda FC's recent record stands at 5W 1D 2L from 8 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dibba Al-Fujairah, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 7L across 8 games — 0.12 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Wahda FC by 1.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dibba Al-Fujairah heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Wahda FC have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Wahda FC are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 0.50 scored and 2.12 conceded.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 games (2.00 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 1D 7L in their last 8 (0.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Dibba Al-Fujairah away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Dibba Al-Fujairah away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Dibba Al-Fujairah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wahda FC won 3-0 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wahda FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dibba Al-Fujairah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al Wahda FC
2
Draws
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 2, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Al Wahda FC 1-0 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dibba Al-Fujairah tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Al Wahda FC) and 33% (Dibba Al-Fujairah) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Al Wahda FC and 0% for Dibba Al-Fujairah.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Wahda FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Dibba Al-Fujairah in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 33% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al Wahda FC's recent games and 0% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wahda FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Wahda FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dibba Al-Fujairah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 3-0 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.87 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.74 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Wahda FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.98 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.55 / defence 1.03, drawn from 34/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 64% | Draw 22% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 14%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 75%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.12. Form held, and they took the win. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.