Al Nasr 0-0 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC meet at Al Maktoum Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 November 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al Nasr's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al Nasr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Nasr's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Al Maktoum Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Al Nasr are significantly better at Al Maktoum Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Wahda FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Wahda FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Wahda FC's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Al Nasr, 1.70 for Al Wahda FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Nasr have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al Wahda FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Al Wahda FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Al Wahda FC winning.
It is worth noting that Al Wahda FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Al Nasr — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al Wahda FC — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Nasr 66% and Al Wahda FC 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 66% | Al Wahda FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 2.14 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.168 / defence 0.906 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.167 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.902 / away 1.736. Data: 32 Al Nasr games / 32 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 45% | Draw 21% | Al Wahda FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.22 | Draw 4.76 | Al Wahda FC 2.94. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Nasr at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Nasr 70% | Al Wahda FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Nov 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 45% | Draw 21% | Al Wahda FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG Al Nasr 2.14 / Al Wahda FC 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.168 / def 0.906 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.167 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.902 / away 1.736 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Al Wahda FC xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 15:30 on Friday 1 November 2024 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC?
Al Nasr 0 - 0 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 45% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 34% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC?
Record (6 meetings): Al Nasr 0W | Draws 2 | Al Wahda FC 4W.
What form are Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Nasr's attack rating (1.17) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 2.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Wahda FC's attack (1.17x) against Al Nasr's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
45%
2.20
21%
4.81
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
3.97
1.84
Al Wahda FC xG
2.20
45%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.88
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
12%
8.47
Win to Nil
7%
13.82
4%
25.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.84 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Nasr's recent record stands at 15W 6D 11L from 32 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Nasr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Wahda FC, meanwhile, have gone 16W 7D 9L across 32 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Al Nasr against 1.72 for Al Wahda FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Nasr have managed 8W 3D 4L from 15 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Wahda FC's away record stands at 7W 2D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Nasr are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.81 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Al Wahda FC in 69%.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Early Season
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 15W 6D 11L in their last 32 games (1.59 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 16W 7D 9L in their last 32 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.80 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wahda FC won 4-0 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Nasr have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Wahda FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al Nasr
5
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 0, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al Nasr 2-2 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 60%, Al Wahda FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al Nasr) and 60% (Al Wahda FC).
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al Nasr's games and 60% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al Nasr's recent games and 60% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Nasr's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC finished level at 0-0 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 2.14 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.84 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Nasr fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Al Wahda FC landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.17 / defence 0.91 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.96, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 45% | Draw 21% | Al Wahda FC 34%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 66%, Al Wahda FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.59 PPG, Al Wahda FC 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.