Al-Jazira 1-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 38%, yet in-form Al-Jazira provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Al-Ittihad Kalba travel to Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium to take on Al-Jazira. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 23 April 2025, 14:55 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Jazira have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira's home record at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Jazira are significantly better at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Jazira carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al-Jazira, 1 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Jazira trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Jazira 67% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Jazira 65% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.27 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 0.819 / defence 1.178 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.855 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.324. Data: 46 Al-Jazira games / 47 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 35% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 38%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Jazira (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Jazira 40% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Apr 2025, 14:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 35% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Jazira 1.27 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 0.819 / def 1.178 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.855 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 14:55 on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Jazira 1 - 2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 35% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Jazira 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Jazira's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Al-Jazira's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
35%
2.83
26%
3.79
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
2.60
1.33
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
9%
10.75
11%
9.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.33 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Jazira's recent record stands at 18W 12D 16L from 46 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 11W 15D 20L across 46 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Jazira on 1.43 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Jazira have managed 10W 5D 7L from 22 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 5W 7D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.39 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 18W 12D 16L in their last 46 games (1.43 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 11W 15D 20L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al-Jazira's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.59 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Sep 2023, when Al-Jazira won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Jazira's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Jazira
4
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 4, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-2 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Jazira at 64%, Al-Ittihad Kalba at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al-Jazira and 68% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Al-Jazira's games and 73% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al-Jazira's matches and 68% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad Kalba edge out Al-Jazira 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Al-Jazira 1-2 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.27 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.33 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 0.82 / defence 1.18 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 35% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 38%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 65%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.43 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad Kalba win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.