Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-1 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Baniyas SC travel to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to take on Al-Ittihad Kalba. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 22 January 2025, 13:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Baniyas SC — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 2 for Baniyas SC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 68% and Baniyas SC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ittihad Kalba 71% | Baniyas SC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.89 xG and Baniyas SC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.137 / defence 1.044 | Baniyas SC attack 0.777 / defence 1.367. League average goals — home 1.863 / away 1.383. Baniyas SC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.367 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 38 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 73% | Draw 17% | Baniyas SC 11%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | Baniyas SC 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad Kalba (73%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 4.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.89 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.02 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Baniyas SC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Jan 2025, 13:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 73% | Draw 17% | Baniyas SC 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 65% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.89 / Baniyas SC 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.137 / def 1.044 | Baniyas SC attack 0.777 / def 1.367 | league avg home 1.863 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.89
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Baniyas SC xG
65%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 13:05 on Wednesday 22 January 2025 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 0 - 1 Baniyas SC.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 73% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 2W | Draws 2 | Baniyas SC 2W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Baniyas SC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Baniyas SC's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.89. The same calculation in reverse, Baniyas SC's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.5%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
73%
1.38
17%
6.06
11%
9.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.89
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
4.02
1.12
Baniyas SC xG
1.38
73%
Home win
6.06
17%
Draw
9.25
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
6%
18.07
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
1%
167.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 2.89 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.12 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 4.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Al-Ittihad Kalba have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 10W 13D 15L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC's form line: 9W 8D 21L from 38 games, 0.92 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.13 PPG, Baniyas SC on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 1.16 PPG from 19 outings (5W 7D 7L).
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 3D 14L from 19 away games — 0.47 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Baniyas SC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad Kalba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.21 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Baniyas SC in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 10W 13D 15L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 9W 8D 21L in their last 38 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Baniyas SC away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.16 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Baniyas SC specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
3
Draws
4
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, Baniyas SC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC?
Baniyas SC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 68%, Baniyas SC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 63% for Baniyas SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Baniyas SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 58% of Baniyas SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 63% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Baniyas SC defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.89 xG and Baniyas SC 1.12 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 2.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.14 / defence 1.04 against Baniyas SC attack 0.78 / defence 1.37, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 73% | Draw 17% | Baniyas SC 11%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a Baniyas SC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 71%, Baniyas SC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.13 PPG, Baniyas SC 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baniyas SC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.