Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-1 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Al-Ittihad Kalba take on Al-Wasl FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Wasl FC meet at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 23 September 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all games): 0W 2D 2L across 4 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Wasl FC's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games (1.25 PPG). Last five: W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Wasl FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Wasl FC arrive in superior form — a 0.75 PPG advantage (1.25 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad Kalba — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Wasl FC — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 50% and Al-Wasl FC 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Ittihad Kalba 25% | Al-Wasl FC 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.14 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.800 / defence 1.059 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.973 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.060. Al-Wasl FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 4 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 33% | Draw 37% | Al-Wasl FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.03 | Draw 2.70 | Al-Wasl FC 3.23. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ittihad Kalba 50% | Al-Wasl FC 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Sep 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 33% | Draw 37% | Al-Wasl FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.14 / Al-Wasl FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.800 / def 1.059 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.973 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Al-Wasl FC xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 15:45 on Thursday 23 September 2021 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 1 - 1 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 33% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 31% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Wasl FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Wasl FC in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack at 0.80x the league average against Al-Wasl FC's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Wasl FC's attack (0.97x) against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.04
37%
2.74
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.23
1.09
Al-Wasl FC xG
3.04
33%
Home win
2.74
37%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
11%
9.07
10%
10.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.09 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Al-Ittihad Kalba have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 2D 2L record — L-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Wasl FC are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
Al-Wasl FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Wasl FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Ittihad Kalba
7
Draws
3
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 0, Al-Wasl FC have won 3, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 50%, Al-Wasl FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 25% for Al-Wasl FC.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Al-Wasl FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 75% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent games and 25% of Al-Wasl FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Wasl FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Wasl FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.14 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.80 / defence 1.06 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.27, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 33% | Draw 37% | Al-Wasl FC 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 25%, Al-Wasl FC 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.