Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-4 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Al-Jazira travel to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to take on Al-Ittihad Kalba. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 September 2023, 14:20 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Jazira have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Jazira have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Jazira away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Al-Jazira's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Al-Ittihad Kalba's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 2 for Al-Jazira and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Al-Jazira winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Jazira in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 50% and Al-Jazira 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 54% | Al-Jazira 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.74 xG and Al-Jazira 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.089 / defence 1.181 | Al-Jazira attack 1.108 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.728. Data: 28 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 28 Al-Jazira games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 30% | Draw 20% | Al-Jazira 50%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.33 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Jazira 2.00. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 2.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.00 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% | Al-Jazira 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 14:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 30% | Draw 20% | Al-Jazira 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.74 / Al-Jazira 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.089 / def 1.181 | Al-Jazira attack 1.108 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.728 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
2.26
Al-Jazira xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 14:20 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 0 - 4 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 30% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 50% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Jazira 2W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Al-Jazira's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 2.26 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
30%
3.35
20%
4.98
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
4.00
2.26
Al-Jazira xG
3.35
30%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.82
Clean Sheet
10%
9.61
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
3%
32.17
9%
11.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 2.26 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Al-Ittihad Kalba have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 9W 7D 12L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Jazira's form line: 15W 4D 9L from 28 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Jazira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Jazira are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 1.21 PPG from 14 outings (5W 2D 7L).
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 7W 2D 5L from 14 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.93 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira in 71%.
Last 28 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
Al-Jazira
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 9W 7D 12L in their last 28 games (1.21 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 15W 4D 9L in their last 28 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Jazira's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.21 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Sep 2023, when Al-Jazira won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
4
Draws
4
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, Al-Jazira have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Jazira 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ittihad Kalba at 57%, Al-Jazira at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 71% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 86% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 71% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Jazira run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al-Ittihad Kalba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-4 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.74 xG and Al-Jazira 2.26 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Al-Jazira outscored their 2.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.09 / defence 1.18 against Al-Jazira attack 1.11 / defence 1.02, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 30% | Draw 20% | Al-Jazira 50%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 54%, Al-Jazira 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.