Ajman 3-5 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Al-Ittihad Kalba travel to Ajman Stadium to take on Ajman. The game is scheduled for Friday 29 September 2023, 14:20 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajman's home record at Ajman Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Ajman are significantly better at Ajman Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ajman 1.20 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Ajman have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Al-Ittihad Kalba have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2023, ended 2–0 with Ajman winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ajman and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Ajman trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 59% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 59% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.30 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.992 / defence 1.071 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.792 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.777. Data: 29 Ajman games / 29 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ajman 33% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 42%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 80% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Sep 2023, 14:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 33% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Ajman 1.30 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.992 / def 1.071 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.792 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.777 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 14:20 on Friday 29 September 2023 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Ajman 3 - 5 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 33% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (4 meetings): Ajman 3W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W.
What form are Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Ajman (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ajman's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
33%
3.05
25%
3.99
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.81
1.51
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
7%
13.76
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Ajman and 1.51 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajman's recent record stands at 13W 6D 10L from 29 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 13L across 29 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajman on 1.55 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ajman have managed 7W 3D 4L from 14 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 4W 5D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajman come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ajman are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.21 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Early Season
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 13W 6D 10L in their last 29 games (1.55 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 9W 7D 13L in their last 29 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Ajman's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.71 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajman's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ajman
1
Draws
4
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 5, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-3 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 71%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Ajman and 57% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Ajman's games and 43% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Ajman's matches and 57% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad Kalba cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Ajman.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Ajman 3-5 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.30 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.51 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Ajman beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ittihad Kalba outscored their 1.51 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.79 / defence 0.90, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 33% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 42%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 59%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajman 1.55 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad Kalba win broke the near-deadlock. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.