Al-Dhafra 2-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Dhafra at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Dhafra and Dibba Al-Fujairah meet at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 September 2025 at 14:40 UTC.
Form
Al-Dhafra (all games): 1W 0D 1L across 2 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Al-Dhafra have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 3.00. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dibba Al-Fujairah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Dhafra. A 1.50 PPG lead over Dibba Al-Fujairah (1.50 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Dhafra lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.71 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 1.064 / defence 1.079 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.258. Data: 2 Al-Dhafra games / 2 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 50% | Draw 24% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 3.85. Al-Dhafra hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Dhafra as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Dhafra if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 Sep 2025, 14:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 50% | Draw 24% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Dhafra 1.71 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 1.064 / def 1.079 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Al-Dhafra (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 14:40 on Friday 12 September 2025 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al-Dhafra 2 - 1 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 50% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Dhafra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Dhafra 1W | Draws 1 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W. Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Dhafra's attack at 1.06x the league average against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack (0.85x) against Al-Dhafra's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Dhafra Win
50%
1.98
24%
4.19
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.86
1.15
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
5%
21.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.15 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Dhafra's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dibba Al-Fujairah, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 2L across 2 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Dhafra by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dibba Al-Fujairah heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Dhafra are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 1.50 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al-Fujairah in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Early Season
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Dhafra have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dibba Al-Fujairah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Dhafra
1
Draws
1
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 2, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-0 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al-Dhafra have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Dhafra's games and 100% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Dibba Al-Fujairah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Dhafra's matches and 100% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's.
Do Al-Dhafra and Dibba Al-Fujairah tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Dhafra edge out Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Dhafra beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-1 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.71 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.15 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 1.06 / defence 1.08 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 50% | Draw 24% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 26%, with Al-Dhafra to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 50%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Dhafra arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Dibba Al-Fujairah conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.