Al Ain 0-0 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Ain vs Sharjah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Ain host Sharjah FC at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 January 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Ain stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Ain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Ain's home record at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium this season.
Sharjah FC — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sharjah FC are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Ain, 1 for Sharjah FC and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Ain trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Sharjah FC trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Ain 66% and Sharjah FC 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Ain 71% | Sharjah FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Ain 1.66 xG and Sharjah FC 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Ain attack 1.206 / defence 0.956 | Sharjah FC attack 1.172 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.809 / away 1.501. Sharjah FC's defence strength of 0.759 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 35 Al Ain games / 36 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Ain 36% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Al Ain 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Sharjah FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sharjah FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Ain 70% | Sharjah FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Ain vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jan 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Ain 36% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 68% | xG Al Ain 1.66 / Sharjah FC 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Al Ain attack 1.206 / def 0.956 | Sharjah FC attack 1.172 / def 0.759 | league avg home 1.809 / away 1.501 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Al Ain xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Sharjah FC xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Ain vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al Ain vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 5 January 2025 at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Ain vs Sharjah FC?
Al Ain 0 - 0 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al Ain vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al Ain vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al Ain vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Ain vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Ain a 36% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Ain vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Al Ain and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Ain vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Sharjah FC?
Record (6 meetings): Al Ain 2W | Draws 3 | Sharjah FC 1W.
What form are Al Ain and Sharjah FC in?
Al Ain (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Sharjah FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Ain's attack at 1.21x the league average against Sharjah FC's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Al Ain's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
36%
2.79
27%
3.69
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Al Ain xG
Total xG
3.34
1.68
Sharjah FC xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
7%
14.99
7%
14.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Ain vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Al Ain and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Al Ain and 1.68 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Ain vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Al Ain have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 19W 6D 10L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Ain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC's form line: 18W 12D 5L from 35 games, 1.89 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Ain on 1.80 PPG, Sharjah FC on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Ain have posted 1.41 PPG from 17 outings (7W 3D 7L).
On the road, Sharjah FC have gone 9W 5D 3L from 17 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Ain are averaging 2.34 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 2.09 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al Ain have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Sharjah FC in 69%.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Ain
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Ain and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al Ain have gone 19W 6D 10L in their last 35 games (1.80 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 18W 12D 5L in their last 35 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Ain at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Ain at home: 1.41 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Ain and Sharjah FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Ain go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2026, when Al Ain won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Ain's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Ain
4
Draws
1
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Ain have won 5, Sharjah FC have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Ain and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when Sharjah FC 0-5 Al Ain.
Who has won more matches between Al Ain and Sharjah FC?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Ain at 71%, Sharjah FC at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al Ain and 59% for Sharjah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Ain home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Ain play Sharjah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al Ain's games and 76% of Sharjah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Ain vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al Ain's matches and 59% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Al Ain and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al Ain have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Ain's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Al Ain and Sharjah FC drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 1.66 xG and Sharjah FC 1.68 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Ain fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Sharjah FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 1.21 / defence 0.96 against Sharjah FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.76, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Ain 36% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 37%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 71%, Sharjah FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Ain's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Ain 1.80 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Ain (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.