Ajman 2-2 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ajman face Khorfakkan.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ajman welcome Khorfakkan to Ajman Stadium in Pro League (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 27 April 2024 at 16:05 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ajman have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ajman at home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.40 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Khorfakkan stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Khorfakkan's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ajman at 1.40 PPG versus Khorfakkan's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Ajman, 1 for Khorfakkan and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended Ajman 2–1 Khorfakkan — a Ajman win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ajman trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Khorfakkan trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ajman 61% and Khorfakkan 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 59% | Khorfakkan 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.53 xG and Khorfakkan 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.802 / defence 1.244 | Khorfakkan attack 0.733 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.758. Khorfakkan's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.60. Ajman's defence rating of 1.244 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Khorfakkan's projected output up. Data: built from Ajman's last 44 games and Khorfakkan's last 45.
Result probabilities: Ajman 36% | Draw 26% | Khorfakkan 39%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.80 | Draw 3.92 | Khorfakkan 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.53 / 1.60) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Khorfakkan as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ajman's last 10 home games and Khorfakkan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ajman 50% (last 10 home games) | Khorfakkan 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, matchday 21 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 16:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 36% | Draw 26% | Khorfakkan 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Ajman 1.53 / Khorfakkan 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.802 / def 1.244 | Khorfakkan attack 0.733 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.758 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Khorfakkan xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ajman vs Khorfakkan FAQs
What time does Ajman vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Ajman vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 16:05 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Ajman 2 - 2 Khorfakkan.
Where is Ajman vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Khorfakkan part of?
Ajman vs Khorfakkan is a Pro League fixture (matchday 21) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 36% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Ajman and Khorfakkan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ajman vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ajman's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ajman's last 44 games and Khorfakkan's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
36%
2.80
26%
3.92
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Ajman xG
Total xG
3.13
1.60
Khorfakkan xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
7%
13.91
8%
11.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ajman vs Khorfakkan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Ajman and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Ajman and 1.60 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajman's recent record stands at 18W 10D 16L from 44 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 23L across 44 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajman by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ajman have managed 8W 4D 9L from their last 21 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 2W 6D 13L across their last 21 away games, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajman come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ajman are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.23 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajman have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
Ajman (Home) vs Khorfakkan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ajman
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Ajman vs Khorfakkan Form FAQs
What form are Ajman and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 18W 10D 16L in their last 44 games (1.45 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 12W 9D 23L in their last 44 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Khorfakkan away?
Ajman's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.33 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 May 2025, when Ajman won Ajman 4-1 Khorfakkan.
Ajman's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ajman
3
Draws
2
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Ajman vs Khorfakkan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Khorfakkan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ajman have won 5, Khorfakkan have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Khorfakkan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Khorfakkan 2-5 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Khorfakkan?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 62%, Khorfakkan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Ajman and 62% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ajman vs Khorfakkan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ajman and Khorfakkan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Ajman's games and 62% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ajman and Khorfakkan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Ajman's matches and 62% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Ajman and Khorfakkan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Ajman's recent matches and 71% of Khorfakkan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajman and Khorfakkan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Ajman and Khorfakkan drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.53 xG and Khorfakkan 1.60 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.80 / defence 1.24 against Khorfakkan attack 0.73 / defence 1.19, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 36% | Draw 26% | Khorfakkan 39%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 59%, Khorfakkan 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajman arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.