Baniyas SC 4-2 Hatta SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hatta SC make the trip to Baniyas Stadium to face Baniyas SC in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 26 April 2024 at 15:05 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Baniyas SC have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC's home record at Baniyas Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Baniyas SC are significantly better at Baniyas Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Hatta SC's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hatta SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hatta SC have gone 1W 1D 7L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Baniyas SC, 0.20 for Hatta SC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Baniyas SC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hatta SC in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Baniyas SC lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Baniyas SC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Baniyas SC half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Hatta SC half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 63% versus Hatta SC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 63% | Hatta SC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.66 xG and Hatta SC 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.787 / defence 0.909 | Hatta SC attack 0.734 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.753. Baniyas SC's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.66 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hatta SC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Baniyas SC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Baniyas SC games / 19 Hatta SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 48% | Draw 25% | Hatta SC 26%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Hatta SC 3.85. Baniyas SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Baniyas SC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baniyas SC 60% | Hatta SC 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 15:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 48% | Draw 25% | Hatta SC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Baniyas SC 1.66 / Hatta SC 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.787 / def 0.909 | Hatta SC attack 0.734 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.753 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Hatta SC xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC kicked off at 15:05 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC?
Baniyas SC 4 - 2 Hatta SC.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC part of?
Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 48% chance of winning, Hatta SC a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Baniyas SC and Hatta SC will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Hatta SC?
Record (1 meetings): Baniyas SC 1W | Draws 0 | Hatta SC 0W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Hatta SC in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Hatta SC (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Baniyas SC's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Hatta SC's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Hatta SC's attack (0.73x) against Baniyas SC's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 44/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
48%
2.07
25%
3.99
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
2.83
1.17
Hatta SC xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
5%
19.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Hatta SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.17 for Hatta SC, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Baniyas SC come into this having played 19 games, going 6W 2D 11L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hatta SC sit at 0.32 PPG from 19 outings (1W 3D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Hatta SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Hatta SC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Baniyas SC's home form reads 4W 1D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatta SC have taken 0.44 points per game from 9 outings (1W 1D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baniyas SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Hatta SC are on 0.74 scored and 2.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baniyas SC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Hatta SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Hatta SC in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 6W 2D 11L in their last 19 games (1.05 PPG), while Hatta SC have gone 1W 3D 15L in their last 19 (0.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Hatta SC away?
Baniyas SC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.44 PPG; Hatta SC away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Baniyas SC
0
Draws
0
Hatta SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Hatta SC?
From 2 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 2, Hatta SC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Hatta SC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when Baniyas SC 4-2 Hatta SC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Hatta SC?
Baniyas SC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Hatta SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 56%, Hatta SC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Baniyas SC and 67% for Hatta SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 33% of games; Hatta SC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Hatta SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Hatta SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Baniyas SC's games and 67% of Hatta SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Baniyas SC's matches and 67% of Hatta SC's.
Do Baniyas SC and Hatta SC tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hatta SC in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baniyas SC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Hatta SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Hatta SC 4-2 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.66 xG and Hatta SC 1.17 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Baniyas SC beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hatta SC outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.79 / defence 0.91 against Hatta SC attack 0.73 / defence 1.34, drawn from 44/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 48% | Draw 25% | Hatta SC 26%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 63%, Hatta SC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Hatta SC's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baniyas SC arrived the stronger side — 1.05 PPG against 0.32. Form held, and they took the win. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm. Hatta SC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.