Vorskla Poltava 0-2 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Polessya (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Vorskla Poltava face Polessya.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Vorskla Poltava welcome Polessya to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vorskla Poltava — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Polessya stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Polessya's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Vorskla Poltava's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Polessya, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Vorskla Poltava.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Polessya winning.
It is worth noting that Polessya have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Vorskla Poltava in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Polessya in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 45% versus Polessya 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 43% | Polessya 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 0.92 xG and Polessya 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.731 / defence 1.104 | Polessya attack 0.988 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 0.928. Vorskla Poltava's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Vorskla Poltava games / 53 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 32% | Draw 31% | Polessya 37%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Polessya 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Polessya at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 20% | Polessya 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 32% | Draw 31% | Polessya 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Vorskla Poltava 0.92 / Polessya 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.731 / def 1.104 | Polessya attack 0.988 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.151 / away 0.928 • Poisson stance: Polessya (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Polessya xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya?
Vorskla Poltava 0 - 2 Polessya.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 32% chance of winning, Polessya a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Polessya?
Record (3 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 0W | Draws 0 | Polessya 3W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Polessya in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Polessya (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Polessya's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
32%
3.15
31%
3.18
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
1.93
1.01
Polessya xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.66
15%
6.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 14.7 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.01 for Polessya, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vorskla Poltava come into this having played 53 games, going 14W 12D 27L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Polessya sit at 1.66 PPG from 53 outings (24W 16D 13L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Polessya carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vorskla Poltava's home form reads 6W 6D 14L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Polessya have taken 1.62 points per game from 26 outings (12W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.32 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Polessya in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 14W 12D 27L in their last 53 games (1.02 PPG), while Polessya have gone 24W 16D 13L in their last 53 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 0.92 PPG; Polessya away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Polessya in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Polessya have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when Polessya won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting Polessya specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Vorskla Poltava
0
Draws
4
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Polessya?
From 4 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 0, Polessya have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 0-2 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 46%, Polessya 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vorskla Poltava) and 46% (Polessya).
On the defensive side: Polessya in 42%; Vorskla Poltava have failed to score in 42% of games; Polessya in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Polessya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 42% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 46% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Polessya tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Polessya in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Polessya cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Vorskla Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat Vorskla Poltava 0-2 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 0.92 xG and Polessya 1.01 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Polessya outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.73 / defence 1.10 against Polessya attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 32% | Draw 31% | Polessya 37%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 43%, Polessya 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Polessya's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Polessya (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.