SK Poltava 0-2 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Kharkiv at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Poltava vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees FC Kharkiv travel to Zirka Stadium to take on SK Poltava. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 September 2025, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, SK Poltava have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. SK Poltava have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Kharkiv — All Games: 4W 3D 1L from 8 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.88 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 0.62 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.62 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Kharkiv are 1.08 PPG ahead (1.88 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
SK Poltava in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SK Poltava 80% and FC Kharkiv 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (SK Poltava 60% | FC Kharkiv 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Poltava 1.16 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Poltava attack 0.867 / defence 1.307 | FC Kharkiv attack 1.058 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.210. Data: 5 SK Poltava games / 5 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Poltava 27% | Draw 24% | FC Kharkiv 49%. Fair-value odds: SK Poltava 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | FC Kharkiv 2.04. FC Kharkiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Kharkiv are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SK Poltava 80% | FC Kharkiv 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Poltava vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Zirka Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Poltava 27% | Draw 24% | FC Kharkiv 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG SK Poltava 1.16 / FC Kharkiv 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: SK Poltava attack 0.867 / def 1.307 | FC Kharkiv attack 1.058 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
SK Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.67
FC Kharkiv xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Poltava vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
SK Poltava vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Zirka Stadium.
What was the final score in SK Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
SK Poltava 0 - 2 FC Kharkiv.
Where is SK Poltava vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Zirka Stadium.
What competition is SK Poltava vs FC Kharkiv part of?
SK Poltava vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win SK Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives SK Poltava a 27% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SK Poltava and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will SK Poltava vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Poltava and FC Kharkiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SK Poltava and FC Kharkiv in?
SK Poltava (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-3D-1L in 8 | 1.88 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 0.62 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SK Poltava's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against FC Kharkiv's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus SK Poltava's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
27%
3.77
24%
4.13
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
SK Poltava xG
Total xG
2.84
1.67
FC Kharkiv xG
3.77
27%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
5%
20.09
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are SK Poltava and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for SK Poltava and 1.67 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, SK Poltava have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 1W 1D 3L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SK Poltava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Kharkiv are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SK Poltava.
Goals in Recent Form
SK Poltava are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SK Poltava have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Poltava
Early Season
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Poltava and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
SK Poltava have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
Have SK Poltava or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SK Poltava
0
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Poltava and FC Kharkiv?
From 2 meetings on record, SK Poltava have won 0, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Poltava and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when FC Kharkiv 2-0 SK Poltava.
Who has won more matches between SK Poltava and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SK Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Poltava 80%, FC Kharkiv 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (SK Poltava) and 20% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv in 40%; FC Kharkiv in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Poltava home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Poltava play FC Kharkiv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of SK Poltava's games and 40% of FC Kharkiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Poltava vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of SK Poltava's recent games and 20% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Poltava and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
SK Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Kharkiv cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SK Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat SK Poltava 0-2 at Zirka Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Poltava 1.16 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.67 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SK Poltava fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Poltava attack 0.87 / defence 1.31 against FC Kharkiv attack 1.06 / defence 1.11, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Poltava 27% | Draw 24% | FC Kharkiv 49%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Poltava 60%, FC Kharkiv 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Poltava's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SK Poltava managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Kharkiv conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.