Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shakhtar Donetsk face Vorskla Poltava.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Shakhtar Donetsk welcome Vorskla Poltava to Arena Lviv. Kick-off is set for Thursday 5 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record at Arena Lviv: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Vorskla Poltava — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Shakhtar Donetsk, 2 for Vorskla Poltava and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 5–0 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shakhtar Donetsk trading profile (44 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (44 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 52% versus Vorskla Poltava 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 57% | Vorskla Poltava 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 2.28 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.814 / defence 0.931 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.996 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.019. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.814 — their λ of 2.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 45 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 66% | Draw 22% | Vorskla Poltava 13%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Vorskla Poltava 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shakhtar Donetsk 50% | Vorskla Poltava 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 66% | Draw 22% | Vorskla Poltava 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 56% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 2.28 / Vorskla Poltava 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.814 / def 0.931 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.996 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Vorskla Poltava xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 5 December 2024 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava?
Shakhtar Donetsk 3 - 1 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 66% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 13% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (6 meetings): Shakhtar Donetsk 4W | Draws 0 | Vorskla Poltava 2W.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Vorskla Poltava in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shakhtar Donetsk's attack rating (1.81) and Vorskla Poltava's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 2.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
66%
1.52
22%
4.63
13%
7.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
3.23
0.95
Vorskla Poltava xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
7.94
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
10%
9.79
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
1%
77.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.95 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this having played 44 games, going 31W 8D 5L for 2.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vorskla Poltava sit at 1.11 PPG from 44 outings (13W 10D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.19 PPG clear of Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shakhtar Donetsk's home form reads 18W 2D 3L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Vorskla Poltava have taken 1.17 points per game from 23 outings (7W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 0.98 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 31W 8D 5L in their last 44 games (2.30 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 13W 10D 21L in their last 44 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.43 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shakhtar Donetsk have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Aug 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
Draws
2
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Vorskla Poltava?
From 7 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 5, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Vorskla Poltava?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 52%, Vorskla Poltava 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 35% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Vorskla Poltava in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 44% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent games and 35% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shakhtar Donetsk cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vorskla Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Vorskla Poltava 3-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 2.28 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.95 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.81 / defence 0.93 against Vorskla Poltava attack 1.00 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 66% | Draw 22% | Vorskla Poltava 13%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 57%, Vorskla Poltava 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (44 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (44 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.