Ruh Lviv 1-1 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ruh Lviv face Shakhtar Donetsk.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk meet at Arena Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Ruh Lviv (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Arena Lviv, Ruh Lviv have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Shakhtar Donetsk have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Shakhtar Donetsk away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shakhtar Donetsk are 0.70 PPG clear of Ruh Lviv in recent Premier League fixtures (2.10 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Shakhtar Donetsk, who have claimed 4 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Shakhtar Donetsk have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Ruh Lviv — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games).
Shakhtar Donetsk — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 49% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 32% | Shakhtar Donetsk 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.70 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.826 / defence 0.938 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.587 / defence 0.730. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 0.983. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence strength of 0.730 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.587 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Ruh Lviv games / 59 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 17% | Draw 28% | Shakhtar Donetsk 55%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 5.88 | Draw 3.57 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 40% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 17% | Draw 28% | Shakhtar Donetsk 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 39% | xG Ruh Lviv 0.70 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.826 / def 0.938 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.587 / def 0.730 | league avg home 1.161 / away 0.983 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
39%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 17% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (6 meetings): Ruh Lviv 0W | Draws 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk 4W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ruh Lviv's attack at 0.83x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shakhtar Donetsk's attack (1.59x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
17%
5.85
28%
3.55
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.16
1.46
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
5.85
17%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
4%
25.23
27%
3.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 16.8 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.46 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 21W 23D 15L from 59 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Shakhtar Donetsk, meanwhile, have gone 40W 12D 7L across 59 games — 2.24 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruh Lviv heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 9W 13D 7L from 29 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record stands at 18W 8D 3L across 29 trips, a 2.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.22 scored and 0.83 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk's attacking output running into Ruh Lviv's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Shakhtar Donetsk in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Current Season
Shakhtar Donetsk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 21W 23D 15L in their last 59 games (1.46 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 40W 12D 7L in their last 59 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.38 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-4 on 28 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shakhtar Donetsk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Ruh Lviv
3
Draws
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 9 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 48%, Shakhtar Donetsk 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Ruh Lviv) and 48% (Shakhtar Donetsk).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 45%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 48% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 48% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk finished level at 1-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.70 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.46 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.83 / defence 0.94 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.59 / defence 0.73, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 17% | Draw 28% | Shakhtar Donetsk 55%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 32%, Shakhtar Donetsk 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.