Ruh Lviv 0-1 Karpaty – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv host Karpaty at Arena Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 21 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ruh Lviv — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's home record at Arena Lviv: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Lviv.
Across all Premier League games this season, Karpaty have recorded 2W 3D 4L from 9 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Karpaty, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karpaty's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Ruh Lviv are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Karpaty in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 33% versus Karpaty 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 56% | Karpaty 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.87 xG and Karpaty 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.283 / defence 0.742 | Karpaty attack 0.894 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.104. Ruh Lviv carry an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Karpaty bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Ruh Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ruh Lviv's defence rating of 0.742 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Ruh Lviv games / 9 Karpaty games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 64% | Draw 23% | Karpaty 13%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 1.56 | Draw 4.35 | Karpaty 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Ruh Lviv (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ruh Lviv are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 50% | Karpaty 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Monday 21 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 64% | Draw 23% | Karpaty 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 45% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.87 / Karpaty 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.283 / def 0.742 | Karpaty attack 0.894 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (64%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Karpaty xG
45%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 21 October 2024 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty?
Ruh Lviv 0 - 1 Karpaty.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 64% chance of winning, Karpaty a 13% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Karpaty will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Karpaty?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Karpaty in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Karpaty (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.56 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ruh Lviv's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Karpaty's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, Karpaty's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
64%
1.57
23%
4.27
13%
7.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.60
0.73
Karpaty xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
7.66
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
31%
3.27
2%
49.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Karpaty expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.73 for Karpaty, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 4D 2L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Karpaty sit at 1.00 PPG from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Karpaty is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Karpaty — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ruh Lviv's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Karpaty have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Karpaty are on 1.11 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games; Karpaty in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Karpaty
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Karpaty in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 4D 2L in their last 9 games (1.44 PPG), while Karpaty have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Karpaty away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.75 PPG; Karpaty away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Karpaty been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Karpaty in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruh Lviv and Karpaty runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2026, when Karpaty won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Karpaty specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ruh Lviv
1
Draws
3
Karpaty
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Karpaty?
From 4 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Karpaty have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Karpaty last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Ruh Lviv 0-3 Karpaty.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Karpaty?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Karpaty see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 25%, Karpaty 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Ruh Lviv and 50% for Karpaty. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Karpaty in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Karpaty away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Karpaty?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 50% of Karpaty's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Karpaty usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Ruh Lviv's matches and 50% of Karpaty's.
Shock result as Karpaty defy the odds to beat Ruh Lviv 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karpaty beat Ruh Lviv 0-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.87 xG and Karpaty 0.73 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.28 / defence 0.74 against Karpaty attack 0.89 / defence 1.23, drawn from 38/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 64% | Draw 23% | Karpaty 13%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Karpaty win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 56%, Karpaty 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Karpaty's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Karpaty winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Karpaty (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.