Ruh Lviv 1-5 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dynamo Kyiv (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ruh Lviv face Dynamo Kyiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ukraina Stadium plays host to Ruh Lviv versus Dynamo Kyiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Friday 8 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ruh Lviv have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ruh Lviv's home record at Ukraina Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ukraina Stadium this season.
Dynamo Kyiv (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Dynamo Kyiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dynamo Kyiv are 0.70 PPG clear of Ruh Lviv in recent Premier League fixtures (2.20 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Dynamo Kyiv hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
It is worth noting that Dynamo Kyiv have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 39% versus Dynamo Kyiv 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 26% | Dynamo Kyiv 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.85 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.049 / defence 0.997 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.174 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.053 / away 0.936. Dynamo Kyiv's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 31 Ruh Lviv games / 31 Dynamo Kyiv games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 28% | Draw 32% | Dynamo Kyiv 41%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Dynamo Kyiv 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 50% | Dynamo Kyiv 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Ukraina Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 28% | Draw 32% | Dynamo Kyiv 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Ruh Lviv 0.85 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.049 / def 0.997 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.174 / def 0.772 | league avg home 1.053 / away 0.936 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Dynamo Kyiv xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 8 August 2025 at Ukraina Stadium.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 5 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Ukraina Stadium.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 28% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv?
Record (7 meetings): Ruh Lviv 0W | Draws 2 | Dynamo Kyiv 5W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ruh Lviv's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Dynamo Kyiv's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. Flip it around — Dynamo Kyiv's attack (1.17x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
28%
3.60
32%
3.17
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
1.95
1.10
Dynamo Kyiv xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
9%
10.76
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 15.6 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.10 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 31 games, going 10W 11D 10L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.35 PPG from 31 outings (21W 10D 0L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ruh Lviv's home form reads 5W 6D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 2.25 points per game from 16 outings (10W 6D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.00 scored and 0.61 conceded. Dynamo Kyiv's attacking output running into Ruh Lviv's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Dynamo Kyiv in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
Dynamo Kyiv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 10W 11D 10L in their last 31 games (1.32 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 21W 10D 0L in their last 31 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.31 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Dynamo Kyiv go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dynamo Kyiv won 1-5 on 8 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dynamo Kyiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Ruh Lviv
2
Draws
7
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 9 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Dynamo Kyiv have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 38%, Dynamo Kyiv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Ruh Lviv and 44% for Dynamo Kyiv.
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Dynamo Kyiv in 50%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Dynamo Kyiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 50% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 44% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo Kyiv run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Ruh Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Ruh Lviv 1-5 at Ukraina Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.85 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.10 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv outscored their 1.10 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.17 / defence 0.77, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 28% | Draw 32% | Dynamo Kyiv 41%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 26%, Dynamo Kyiv 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.