Polessya 3-1 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Polessya at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Polessya and Obolon'-Brovar meet at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Premier League (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Polessya's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Polessya have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Obolon'-Brovar (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Polessya's favour (1.90 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Polessya edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Polessya 4–0 Obolon'-Brovar — a Polessya win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Polessya — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Obolon'-Brovar — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 45% versus Obolon'-Brovar 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Polessya 36% | Obolon'-Brovar 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.67 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 1.007 / defence 0.817 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.725 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.206. Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating of 1.320 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Polessya's projected output up. Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Data: built from Polessya's last 54 games and Obolon'-Brovar's last 53.
Result probabilities: Polessya 60% | Draw 24% | Obolon'-Brovar 16%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 1.66 | Draw 4.18 | Obolon'-Brovar 6.38. The model has a clear lean to Polessya (60%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Polessya at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Polessya 30% (last 10 home games) | Obolon'-Brovar 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 60% | Draw 24% | Obolon'-Brovar 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Polessya 1.67 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 1.007 / def 0.817 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.725 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Polessya (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Obolon'-Brovar xG
41%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar FAQs
What time does Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Polessya 3 - 1 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 60% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Polessya and Obolon'-Brovar will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Polessya's attack rating (1.01) and Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Obolon'-Brovar's attack (0.72x) against Polessya's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from Polessya's last 54 games and Obolon'-Brovar's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.18
16%
6.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.38
0.71
Obolon'-Brovar xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
6.38
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
30%
3.38
3%
33.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 11.0 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Polessya and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Polessya and 0.71 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Polessya have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 25W 16D 12L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Obolon'-Brovar's form line: 13W 16D 24L from 53 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Polessya are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Obolon'-Brovar.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Polessya have posted 1.58 PPG from their last 26 home games (10W 11D 5L).
On the road, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 7W 4D 15L from their last 26 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Polessya are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.70 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Polessya (Home) vs Obolon'-Brovar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Polessya
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar Form FAQs
What form are Polessya and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 25W 16D 12L in their last 53 games (1.72 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 13W 16D 24L in their last 53 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Polessya's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 1.58 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Polessya or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Polessya have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Polessya won Polessya 4-0 Obolon'-Brovar on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Polessya have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Obolon'-Brovar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Polessya
1
Draws
1
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Obolon'-Brovar?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Polessya have won 5, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Polessya and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: Polessya 3-0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Obolon'-Brovar?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Obolon'-Brovar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 46%, Obolon'-Brovar 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Polessya) and 50% (Obolon'-Brovar).
On the defensive side: Polessya keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Polessya have failed to score in 31% of games; Obolon'-Brovar in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Polessya and Obolon'-Brovar matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Polessya's recent matches and 31% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Polessya and Obolon'-Brovar matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Polessya's recent games and 50% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Polessya and Obolon'-Brovar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Polessya's recent matches and 69% of Obolon'-Brovar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Polessya cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Obolon'-Brovar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat Obolon'-Brovar 3-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.67 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.71 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Polessya beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 1.01 / defence 0.82 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.72 / defence 1.32, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 60% | Draw 24% | Obolon'-Brovar 16%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 36%, Obolon'-Brovar 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Polessya (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.