LNZ Cherkasy 1-1 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees FC Kharkiv travel to Cherkasy Arena to take on LNZ Cherkasy. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Cherkasy Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cherkasy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.20. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: LNZ Cherkasy 2.20 PPG, FC Kharkiv 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, FC Kharkiv 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 15% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (LNZ Cherkasy 22% | FC Kharkiv 30%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 30% | FC Kharkiv 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.07 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.095 / defence 0.936 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.901 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.206. FC Kharkiv's defence strength of 0.780 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 LNZ Cherkasy games / 24 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 36% | Draw 30% | FC Kharkiv 34%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | FC Kharkiv 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is LNZ Cherkasy at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 20% | FC Kharkiv 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 36% | Draw 30% | FC Kharkiv 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.07 / FC Kharkiv 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.095 / def 0.936 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.901 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.02
FC Kharkiv xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv?
LNZ Cherkasy 1 - 1 FC Kharkiv.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 36% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv?
Record (3 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 1W | Draws 1 | FC Kharkiv 1W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against FC Kharkiv's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
36%
2.74
30%
3.33
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.09
1.02
FC Kharkiv xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.02 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, LNZ Cherkasy have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 16W 6D 5L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 14W 9D 4L from 27 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: LNZ Cherkasy on 2.00 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 1.85 PPG from 13 outings (7W 3D 3L).
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 5D 2L from 13 away games — 1.77 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.59 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.22 scored and 0.52 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games; FC Kharkiv in 30%.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games; FC Kharkiv in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 16W 6D 5L in their last 27 games (2.00 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 14W 9D 4L in their last 27 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or FC Kharkiv away?
LNZ Cherkasy's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.85 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.77 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
2
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv?
From 4 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 1-1 FC Kharkiv.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — LNZ Cherkasy 15% BTTS, FC Kharkiv 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for LNZ Cherkasy and 31% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 69% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 46%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 31% of games; FC Kharkiv in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 15% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 38% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 31% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv finished level at 1-1 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.07 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.02 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.90 / defence 0.78, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 36% | Draw 30% | FC Kharkiv 34%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 26% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 30%, FC Kharkiv 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 26%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 2.00 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.