Oleksandria 0-0 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours Dynamo Kyiv — this Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Dynamo Kyiv travel to CSC Nika to take on Oleksandria in Premier League (matchday 1). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 4 December 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Oleksandria — last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Oleksandria's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Dynamo Kyiv have recorded 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Oleksandria 2.40 PPG, Dynamo Kyiv 2.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Dynamo Kyiv have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Oleksandria.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2024, ended Oleksandria 0–1 Dynamo Kyiv — a Dynamo Kyiv win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Dynamo Kyiv have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Oleksandria in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Dynamo Kyiv in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 41% versus Dynamo Kyiv 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 48% | Dynamo Kyiv 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.42 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.309 / defence 0.767 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.592 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.033. Oleksandria carry an above-average attack rating of 1.309 — their 1.42 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Dynamo Kyiv have an above-average attack rating of 1.592, which lifts their away xG to 1.26. Oleksandria have a tight defence (rating 0.767), which is pulling Dynamo Kyiv's projected output down. Data: built from Oleksandria's last 44 games and Dynamo Kyiv's last 44.
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 39% | Draw 29% | Dynamo Kyiv 32%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.55 | Draw 3.45 | Dynamo Kyiv 3.14. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Oleksandria's last 10 home games and Dynamo Kyiv's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Oleksandria 40% (last 10 home games) | Dynamo Kyiv 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 1 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 December 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 39% | Draw 29% | Dynamo Kyiv 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Oleksandria 1.42 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.309 / def 0.767 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.592 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Dynamo Kyiv xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv FAQs
What time does Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Wednesday 4 December 2024 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Oleksandria 0 - 0 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 1) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 39% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 1.31x the league average against Dynamo Kyiv's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Oleksandria's last 44 games and Dynamo Kyiv's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
39%
2.55
29%
3.45
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.68
1.26
Dynamo Kyiv xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
11%
9.00
8%
13.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.26 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oleksandria come into this having played 44 games, going 19W 13D 12L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.39 PPG from 44 outings (33W 6D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Oleksandria's home form reads 11W 5D 5L across their last 21 home games, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 2.29 points per game from their last 21 away games (15W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Oleksandria are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.39 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
Oleksandria (Home) vs Dynamo Kyiv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Oleksandria
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv Form FAQs
What form are Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 19W 13D 12L in their last 44 games (1.59 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 33W 6D 5L in their last 44 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.81 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 19 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Mar 2026, when Dynamo Kyiv won Oleksandria 0-5 Dynamo Kyiv.
Oleksandria's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Oleksandria
2
Draws
7
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Oleksandria have won 0, Dynamo Kyiv have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 March 2026: Oleksandria 0-5 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 43%, Dynamo Kyiv 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Oleksandria) and 67% (Dynamo Kyiv). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kyiv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Oleksandria's games and 71% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Oleksandria's matches and 67% of Dynamo Kyiv's.
Do Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 48% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 86% of Dynamo Kyiv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Oleksandria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 1, as Oleksandria and Dynamo Kyiv drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.42 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.26 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oleksandria fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Dynamo Kyiv landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.31 / defence 0.77 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.59 / defence 0.88, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 39% | Draw 29% | Dynamo Kyiv 32%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 48%, Dynamo Kyiv 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.59. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.