Veres Rivne 0-0 Karpaty – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Veres Rivne vs Karpaty fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Avanhard plays host to Veres Rivne versus Karpaty in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 3 August 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Veres Rivne have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Veres Rivne haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Veres Rivne's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Avanhard this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.66 xG and Karpaty 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 1.066 / defence 1.043 | Karpaty attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.211. Data: 30 Veres Rivne games / 0 Karpaty games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 51% | Draw 24% | Karpaty 24%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Karpaty 4.17. Veres Rivne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Veres Rivne are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Karpaty | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 51% | Draw 24% | Karpaty 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Veres Rivne 1.66 / Karpaty 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 1.066 / def 1.043 | Karpaty attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Karpaty xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Karpaty kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Karpaty kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Karpaty?
Veres Rivne 0 - 0 Karpaty.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Karpaty being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Karpaty part of?
Veres Rivne vs Karpaty is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Karpaty?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 51% chance of winning, Karpaty a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Karpaty?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Veres Rivne and Karpaty will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Karpaty have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Karpaty?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Veres Rivne and Karpaty in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Veres Rivne's attack rating (1.07) and Karpaty's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karpaty's attack (0.85x) against Veres Rivne's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.11
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.74
1.07
Karpaty xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
5%
21.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Karpaty?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Karpaty expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.07 for Karpaty, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Karpaty?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Pre-Season
Karpaty
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karpaty won 5-0 on 7 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Veres Rivne have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Karpaty — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Veres Rivne
2
Draws
2
Karpaty
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Karpaty?
From 4 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 0, Karpaty have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Karpaty last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Karpaty 2-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Karpaty?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Karpaty away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Veres Rivne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 1, as Veres Rivne and Karpaty drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.66 xG and Karpaty 1.07 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Veres Rivne fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Karpaty landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 1.07 / defence 1.04 against Karpaty attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 51% | Draw 24% | Karpaty 24%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.