Lviv 0-2 Desna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Desna at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lviv face Desna.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena L'viv plays host to Lviv versus Desna in Premier League (matchday 14). Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
Lviv's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Lviv at home: 0W 3D 4L from their last 7 home games — 0.43 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Desna (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Desna have posted 1W 2D 3L from their last 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Lviv, 0.90 for Desna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Lviv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Desna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 54% versus Desna 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lviv 38% | Desna 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.06 xG and Desna 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.692 / defence 1.396 | Desna attack 0.715 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.080 / away 1.219. Lviv's attack rating of 0.692 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Desna's defence rating of 1.420 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lviv's projected output up. Desna's attack rating of 0.715 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.22. Lviv's defence rating of 1.396 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Desna's projected output up. Data: built from Lviv's last 13 games and Desna's last 13.
Result probabilities: Lviv 31% | Draw 31% | Desna 39%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 3.25 | Draw 3.26 | Desna 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Desna as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Desna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lviv 57% (last 7 home games) | Desna 50% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Desna | Competition: Premier League, matchday 14 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 31% | Draw 31% | Desna 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Lviv 1.06 / Desna 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.692 / def 1.396 | Desna attack 0.715 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.080 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Desna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Desna xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lviv vs Desna FAQs
What time does Lviv vs Desna kick off?
Lviv vs Desna kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Lviv vs Desna?
Lviv 0 - 2 Desna.
Where is Lviv vs Desna being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Lviv vs Desna part of?
Lviv vs Desna is a Premier League fixture (matchday 14) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Desna?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 31% chance of winning, Desna a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Desna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Desna?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lviv and Desna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Lviv vs Desna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lviv's attack at 0.69x the league average against Desna's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Desna's attack (0.71x) against Lviv's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from Lviv's last 13 games and Desna's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Desna Win
31%
3.25
31%
3.26
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Lviv xG
Total xG
2.28
1.22
Desna xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
9%
10.97
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lviv vs Desna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Desna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Lviv and Desna expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Lviv and 1.22 for Desna, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Desna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Lviv have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 2W 4D 7L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Desna's form line: 5W 3D 5L from 13 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Desna are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lviv.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lviv have posted 0.33 PPG from their last 6 home games (0W 2D 4L). That actually lags their 0.77 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Desna have gone 1W 2D 3L from their last 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Desna's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Desna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lviv are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Desna are on 1.15 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Blended
Desna
Blended
Lviv (Home) vs Desna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lviv
Blended
Desna
Blended
❓ Lviv vs Desna Form FAQs
What form are Lviv and Desna in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 2W 4D 7L in their last 13 games (0.77 PPG), while Desna have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or Desna away?
Desna's away record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.33 PPG; Desna away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Lviv or Desna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Desna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 1 H2H match between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 7 November 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Lviv
0
Draws
1
Desna
Recent Meetings
❓ Lviv vs Desna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Desna?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, Lviv have won 0, Desna have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Desna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2021: Lviv 0-2 Desna.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Desna?
Desna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 1 head-to-head match in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Desna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lviv 50%, Desna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lviv) and 67% (Desna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lviv have failed to score in 50% of games; Desna in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Desna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lviv vs Desna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lviv and Desna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lviv's recent matches and 50% of Desna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lviv and Desna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lviv's matches and 67% of Desna's.
Do Lviv and Desna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Lviv's recent matches and 67% of Desna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Desna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Desna beat Lviv 0-2 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 1.06 xG and Desna 1.22 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lviv fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.69 / defence 1.40 against Desna attack 0.71 / defence 1.42, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 31% | Draw 31% | Desna 39%, with Desna to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 38%, Desna 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Desna's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Desna arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Desna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.