LNZ Cherkasy 1-0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy host Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at Cherkasy Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 August 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 0W 7D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
LNZ Cherkasy at Cherkasy Arena this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: LNZ Cherkasy 0.70 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.17 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.946 / defence 1.001 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 0.985. Data: 31 LNZ Cherkasy games / 1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 43% | Draw 31% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 26%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Aug 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 43% | Draw 31% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.17 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.946 / def 1.001 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.074 / away 0.985 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 9 August 2025 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
LNZ Cherkasy 1 - 0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 43% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating (0.95) and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
43%
2.32
31%
3.23
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.01
0.84
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
8%
12.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.84 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, LNZ Cherkasy have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 2D 0L record — D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-L. It's still early in the season for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, LNZ Cherkasy are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
The Goals Picture
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 games (1.00 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between LNZ Cherkasy and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
LNZ Cherkasy
0
Draws
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 2 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-2 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 50% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 50% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as LNZ Cherkasy edge out Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-0 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.17 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.84 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 43% | Draw 31% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 26%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 0%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, LNZ Cherkasy arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.