Livyi Bereh 1-1 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Livyi Bereh take on Obolon'-Brovar.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Obolon'-Brovar make the trip to Stadion Livyi Bereh to face Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Livyi Bereh (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Livyi Bereh have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadion Livyi Bereh — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Obolon'-Brovar's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Obolon'-Brovar's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Livyi Bereh against 0.80 for Obolon'-Brovar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Livyi Bereh have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Obolon'-Brovar in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Livyi Bereh lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Livyi Bereh — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 72% of games.
Obolon'-Brovar — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 61% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Livyi Bereh 17% | Obolon'-Brovar 28%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 28% | Obolon'-Brovar 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 0.67 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.481 / defence 1.174 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.676 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.044. Livyi Bereh's attack strength of 0.481 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Livyi Bereh games / 44 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 26% | Draw 38% | Obolon'-Brovar 36%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 3.85 | Draw 2.63 | Obolon'-Brovar 2.78. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.50. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.50 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Livyi Bereh's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.50 combined xG gives a 19% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 28%. Form rates corroborate: Livyi Bereh 20% | Obolon'-Brovar 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 26% | Draw 38% | Obolon'-Brovar 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 28% | xG Livyi Bereh 0.67 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.481 / def 1.174 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.676 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Obolon'-Brovar xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Livyi Bereh 1 - 1 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 26% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 36% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar?
Record (2 meetings): Livyi Bereh 0W | Draws 1 | Obolon'-Brovar 1W.
What form are Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Livyi Bereh's attacking strength (0.48x league average) is weighed against Obolon'-Brovar's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.67. Flip it around — Obolon'-Brovar's attack (0.68x) against Livyi Bereh's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 14/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 23.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.8%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.79
38%
2.63
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.5%
Away win
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
1.50
0.83
Obolon'-Brovar xG
3.79
26%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.53
72%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
51%
1.96
Win to Nil
12%
8.67
18%
5.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.3 | 18.5 | 7.7 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.9%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 0.83 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 1.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Livyi Bereh have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 3W 5D 10L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Obolon'-Brovar's form line: 3W 4D 11L from 18 games, 0.72 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.78 PPG for Livyi Bereh against 0.72 for Obolon'-Brovar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Livyi Bereh have posted 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L).
On the road, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 1D 6L from 8 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.50 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games; Obolon'-Brovar in 28%.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 5D 10L in their last 18 games (0.78 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 3W 4D 11L in their last 18 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Livyi Bereh at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Livyi Bereh's home record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Livyi Bereh at home: 0.88 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Livyi Bereh have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Obolon'-Brovar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Livyi Bereh
2
Draws
2
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 4 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 0, Obolon'-Brovar have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar?
Obolon'-Brovar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Obolon'-Brovar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Livyi Bereh) and 25% (Obolon'-Brovar) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Livyi Bereh) and 38% (Obolon'-Brovar).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 75% of games; Obolon'-Brovar in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 25% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 38% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 15, as Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 0.67 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.83 xG, a combined 1.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.48 / defence 1.17 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.68 / defence 1.16, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 26% | Draw 38% | Obolon'-Brovar 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 28%, Obolon'-Brovar 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 22%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Livyi Bereh 0.78 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 0.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.