Livyi Bereh 0-0 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inhulets at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Livyi Bereh vs Inhulets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Livyi Bereh host Inhulets at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 8 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Livyi Bereh stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Livyi Bereh have posted 2W 2D 5L at Stadion Livyi Bereh — 0.89 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, Inhulets have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Inhulets have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Livyi Bereh at 0.80 PPG versus Inhulets's 0.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Livyi Bereh in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 83% of games.
Inhulets in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Livyi Bereh 8% | Inhulets 58%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Livyi Bereh 33% | Inhulets 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 0.95 xG and Inhulets 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.536 / defence 1.273 | Inhulets attack 0.787 / defence 1.529. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.095. Livyi Bereh's attack strength of 0.536 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Inhulets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.529 — this is suppressing Livyi Bereh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Livyi Bereh games / 12 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 30% | Draw 32% | Inhulets 38%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Inhulets 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inhulets at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inhulets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Livyi Bereh 22% | Inhulets 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Friday 8 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 30% | Draw 32% | Inhulets 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Livyi Bereh 0.95 / Inhulets 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.536 / def 1.273 | Inhulets attack 0.787 / def 1.529 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Inhulets xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Inhulets kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Inhulets kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 8 November 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs Inhulets?
Livyi Bereh 0 - 0 Inhulets.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Inhulets part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 30% chance of winning, Inhulets a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Inhulets?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Livyi Bereh and Inhulets in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Inhulets (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Livyi Bereh's attack at 0.54x the league average against Inhulets's defence at 1.53x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inhulets's attack versus Livyi Bereh's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
30%
3.33
32%
3.08
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
2.05
1.10
Inhulets xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
10%
9.98
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 14.2 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.10 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Livyi Bereh have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 2W 2D 8L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inhulets's form line: 0W 5D 7L from 12 games, 0.42 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Livyi Bereh on 0.67 PPG, Inhulets on 0.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Livyi Bereh have posted 0.50 PPG from 6 outings (1W 0D 5L).
On the road, Inhulets have gone 0W 2D 4L from 6 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.75 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh have seen both teams score in 8% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 2W 2D 8L in their last 12 games (0.67 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 0W 5D 7L in their last 12 (0.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Livyi Bereh at home or Inhulets away?
Livyi Bereh's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Livyi Bereh at home: 0.50 PPG; Inhulets away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Livyi Bereh
1
Draws
1
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Inhulets?
From 2 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 0, Inhulets have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2025, when Inhulets 2-1 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and Inhulets?
Inhulets have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Livyi Bereh 0% BTTS, Inhulets 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Livyi Bereh) and 67% (Inhulets).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 83% of games; Inhulets in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play Inhulets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 67% of Inhulets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 67% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Inhulets tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Livyi Bereh's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Livyi Bereh and Inhulets finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 0.95 xG and Inhulets 1.10 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Livyi Bereh fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Inhulets landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.54 / defence 1.27 against Inhulets attack 0.79 / defence 1.53, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 30% | Draw 32% | Inhulets 38%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 33%, Inhulets 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 8% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 83% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inhulets's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Livyi Bereh 0.67 PPG, Inhulets 0.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Inhulets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.