Inhulets 0-1 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Oleksandria (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Inhulets face Oleksandria.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CSC Nika plays host to Inhulets versus Oleksandria in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 25 April 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Inhulets's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 5L across 9 games at CSC Nika this term (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 11% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Oleksandria have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Oleksandria arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Oleksandria, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Oleksandria winning.
It is worth noting that Oleksandria have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Inhulets — key trading statistics (24 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Oleksandria — key trading statistics (24 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 33% versus Oleksandria 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 38% | Oleksandria 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.62 xG and Oleksandria 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.544 / defence 0.968 | Oleksandria attack 1.061 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.008. Inhulets's attack strength of 0.544 is below the league average — the 0.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Inhulets games / 55 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 22% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 45%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 4.55 | Draw 3.03 | Oleksandria 2.22. Oleksandria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Inhulets's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oleksandria if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.66 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 11% | Oleksandria 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Friday 25 Apr 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 22% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 30% | xG Inhulets 0.62 / Oleksandria 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.544 / def 0.968 | Oleksandria attack 1.061 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.62
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Oleksandria xG
30%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Oleksandria kick off?
Inhulets vs Oleksandria kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 25 April 2025 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Oleksandria?
Inhulets 0 - 1 Oleksandria.
Where is Inhulets vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Inhulets vs Oleksandria part of?
Inhulets vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 22% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 45% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Inhulets and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Oleksandria?
Record (4 meetings): Inhulets 0W | Draws 1 | Oleksandria 3W.
What form are Inhulets and Oleksandria in?
Inhulets (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Oleksandria (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Inhulets's attack at 0.54x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Oleksandria's attack (1.06x) against Inhulets's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 24/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (18.2%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
22%
4.62
33%
2.99
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.62
Inhulets xG
Total xG
1.66
1.04
Oleksandria xG
4.62
22%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.35
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
54%
1.86
Win to Nil
8%
13.02
24%
4.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.1 | 19.8 | 10.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.7%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 0.62 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.04 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, Inhulets have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 3W 8D 13L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oleksandria's form line: 16W 6D 2L from 24 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Oleksandria are the form team by 1.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Inhulets.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Inhulets have posted 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L).
On the road, Oleksandria have gone 4W 3D 2L from 9 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Oleksandria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Inhulets are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.54 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 3W 8D 13L in their last 24 games (0.71 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 16W 6D 2L in their last 24 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Oleksandria away?
Oleksandria's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 0.89 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Inhulets or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Oleksandria go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inhulets have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Inhulets
1
Draws
4
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Oleksandria?
From 5 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 0, Oleksandria have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Inhulets 0-1 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Inhulets see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 11% (Inhulets) and 33% (Oleksandria) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 11% for Inhulets and 33% for Oleksandria.
On the defensive side: Inhulets keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Oleksandria in 44%; Inhulets have failed to score in 67% of games; Oleksandria in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of Inhulets's recent matches and 33% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of Inhulets's recent games and 33% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Oleksandria tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Oleksandria edge out Inhulets 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Inhulets 0-1 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.62 xG and Oleksandria 1.04 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.54 / defence 0.97 against Oleksandria attack 1.06 / defence 0.96, drawn from 24/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 22% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 45%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 38%, Oleksandria 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (24 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oleksandria's trading profile (24 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.71. That form edge translated into the three points. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.