Inhulets 1-2 Karpaty – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Inhulets take on Karpaty.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Karpaty make the trip to CSC Nika to face Inhulets in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Monday 14 April 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Inhulets have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets's home record at CSC Nika: 2W 1D 4L from 7 Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.43 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Karpaty's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Karpaty, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Karpaty have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Inhulets, 1.50 for Karpaty — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Inhulets lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Inhulets half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Karpaty half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Inhulets 32% | Karpaty 32%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 36% | Karpaty 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.74 xG and Karpaty 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.583 / defence 0.925 | Karpaty attack 0.707 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 0.964. Inhulets's attack strength of 0.583 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Inhulets games / 23 Karpaty games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 34% | Draw 39% | Karpaty 27%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 2.94 | Draw 2.56 | Karpaty 3.70. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 16% | BTTS probability 25% | Total xG 1.37. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 84% probability — total xG of 1.37 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 75% — Karpaty's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 25%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 16% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 25% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 0% | Karpaty 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Karpaty | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Monday 14 Apr 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 34% | Draw 39% | Karpaty 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 16% | BTTS 25% | xG Inhulets 0.74 / Karpaty 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.583 / def 0.925 | Karpaty attack 0.707 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.125 / away 0.964 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Karpaty xG
25%
BTTS
40%
Over 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Karpaty kick off?
Inhulets vs Karpaty kicked off at 13:30 on Monday 14 April 2025 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Karpaty?
Inhulets 1 - 2 Karpaty.
Where is Inhulets vs Karpaty being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Inhulets vs Karpaty part of?
Inhulets vs Karpaty is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Karpaty?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 34% chance of winning, Karpaty a 27% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Karpaty?
Our model estimates a 25% probability that both Inhulets and Karpaty will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Karpaty have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 16%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Karpaty?
Record (1 meetings): Inhulets 0W | Draws 1 | Karpaty 0W.
What form are Inhulets and Karpaty in?
Inhulets (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Karpaty (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Inhulets's attack rating (0.58) and Karpaty's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karpaty's attack (0.71x) against Inhulets's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 26.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.3%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 59% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.93
39%
2.59
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
25.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.8%
Home win
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Inhulets xG
Total xG
1.37
0.63
Karpaty xG
2.93
34%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
40%
Over 1.5
2.50
60%
Under 1.5
1.67
16%
Over 2.5
6.25
84%
Under 2.5
1.19
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
25%
BTTS Yes
4.08
75%
BTTS No
1.33
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25.3 | 15.9 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.8 | 11.9 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Karpaty?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 26.9%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Karpaty expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Inhulets and 0.63 for Karpaty, a combined total of 1.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Karpaty?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Inhulets's recent record stands at 3W 7D 12L from 22 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karpaty, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 8L across 22 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Karpaty is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Karpaty by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Inhulets heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Inhulets have managed 2W 1D 4L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Karpaty's away record stands at 1W 2D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Karpaty's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Inhulets are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Karpaty are on 1.27 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Karpaty in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Karpaty
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Karpaty in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 3W 7D 12L in their last 22 games (0.73 PPG), while Karpaty have gone 9W 5D 8L in their last 22 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Karpaty away?
Inhulets's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 1.00 PPG; Karpaty away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Inhulets or Karpaty been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Karpaty in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Inhulets
1
Draws
1
Karpaty
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Karpaty?
From 2 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 0, Karpaty have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Karpaty last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2025, when Inhulets 1-2 Karpaty.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Karpaty?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Inhulets see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Karpaty see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Inhulets) and 29% (Karpaty) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Inhulets and 29% for Karpaty.
On the defensive side: Inhulets keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Inhulets have failed to score in 71% of games; Karpaty in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Karpaty away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Karpaty?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Inhulets's recent matches and 29% of Karpaty's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Karpaty usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Inhulets's recent games and 29% of Karpaty's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Karpaty defy the odds to beat Inhulets 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karpaty beat Inhulets 1-2 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.74 xG and Karpaty 0.63 xG, a combined 1.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Karpaty outscored their 0.63 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.58 / defence 0.93 against Karpaty attack 0.71 / defence 1.13, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 34% | Draw 39% | Karpaty 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Karpaty win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 16%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 40% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 25% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 36%, Karpaty 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (22 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Karpaty's trading profile (22 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Karpaty arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.73. Form held, and they took the win. Inhulets (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karpaty (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.