Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-1 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Relegation Round sees Veres Rivne travel to Stadion Livyi Bereh to take on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 29 May 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Premier League games this season, Veres Rivne have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.19 xG and Veres Rivne 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Veres Rivne attack 0.781 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.201. Data: 0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 60 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 39% | Draw 29% | Veres Rivne 33%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Veres Rivne 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 39% | Draw 29% | Veres Rivne 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.19 / Veres Rivne 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Veres Rivne attack 0.781 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Veres Rivne xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 13:30 on Wednesday 29 May 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1 - 1 Veres Rivne.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne is a Relegation Round fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 39% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Epitsentr Dunayivtsi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Veres Rivne away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack rating (0.85) and Veres Rivne's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Win
39%
2.59
29%
3.51
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.27
1.08
Veres Rivne xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1.08 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Pre-Season
Veres Rivne
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's record when hosting Veres Rivne specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
2
Draws
2
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne?
From 4 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, Veres Rivne have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Veres Rivne 3-3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Who has won more matches between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Relegation Round, as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.19 xG and Veres Rivne 1.08 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Veres Rivne attack 0.78 / defence 1.09, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 39% | Draw 29% | Veres Rivne 33%, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.