Chornomorets 2-0 Lviv – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Lviv at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chornomorets face Lviv.

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Match Analysis

Chornomorets host Lviv at Stadion Chornomorets in Premier League (matchday 13). Kick-off is Monday 14 November 2022 at 12:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Chornomorets have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Chornomorets have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Lviv — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Lviv's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chornomorets at 0.60 PPG versus Lviv's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Chornomorets have won 0, Lviv 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Oct 2021, ended Chornomorets 1–1 Lviv — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Chornomorets in-play and half-time data (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Lviv in-play and half-time data (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 55% versus Lviv 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 62% | Lviv 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.80 xG and Lviv 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.659 / defence 1.390 | Lviv attack 0.729 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.220. Chornomorets's attack rating of 0.659 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Lviv's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.24. Chornomorets's defence rating of 1.390 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lviv's projected output up. Data: built from Chornomorets's last 29 games and Lviv's last 29.

Result probabilities: Chornomorets 24% | Draw 30% | Lviv 47%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 4.19 | Draw 3.39 | Lviv 2.15. Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lviv at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chornomorets 60% (last 10 home games) | Lviv 30% (last 10 away games).

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