Vorskla Poltava 1-1 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Mynai plays host to Vorskla Poltava versus Dnipro-1 in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 13 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vorskla Poltava have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Mynai this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Mynai. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dnipro-1 (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1 away from home this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Dnipro-1 are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Vorskla Poltava have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Dnipro-1 in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Vorskla Poltava 0W, Dnipro-1 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–5 with Dnipro-1 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Vorskla Poltava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Dnipro-1 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 48% versus Dnipro-1 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 41% | Dnipro-1 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 0.90 xG and Dnipro-1 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.908 / defence 0.769 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.472 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.227. Dnipro-1's defence strength of 0.767 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Dnipro-1 have an above-average attack strength of 1.472 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Vorskla Poltava's defence rating of 0.769 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 30 Vorskla Poltava games / 29 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 24% | Draw 27% | Dnipro-1 48%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Dnipro-1 2.08. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 30% | Dnipro-1 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Mynai • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 24% | Draw 27% | Dnipro-1 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Vorskla Poltava 0.90 / Dnipro-1 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.908 / def 0.769 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.472 / def 0.767 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Dnipro-1 xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Stadion Mynai.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1?
Vorskla Poltava 1 - 1 Dnipro-1.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Mynai.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 24% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1?
Record (2 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 0W | Draws 1 | Dnipro-1 1W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1 in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (1.47x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 30/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
24%
4.10
27%
3.65
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.29
1.39
Dnipro-1 xG
4.10
24%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
41%
2.47
Win to Nil
6%
16.42
20%
5.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 14.0 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.39 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vorskla Poltava come into this having played 29 games, going 13W 7D 9L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dnipro-1 sit at 2.45 PPG from 29 outings (23W 2D 4L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Vorskla Poltava's home form reads 8W 3D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Dnipro-1 have taken 2.21 points per game from 14 outings (10W 1D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 2.14 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Dnipro-1 in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 13W 7D 9L in their last 29 games (1.59 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 23W 2D 4L in their last 29 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.93 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dnipro-1 won 5-1 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vorskla Poltava
2
Draws
2
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1?
From 6 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, Dnipro-1 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 2 December 2023, when Dnipro-1 1-2 Vorskla Poltava.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 36%, Dnipro-1 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Vorskla Poltava) and 64% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 50%; Vorskla Poltava have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 36% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 64% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1 finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Mynai, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 0.90 xG and Dnipro-1 1.39 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.91 / defence 0.77 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.47 / defence 0.77, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 24% | Draw 27% | Dnipro-1 48%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 41%, Dnipro-1 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.59. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.