Chornomorets 2-0 Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lviv at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chornomorets host Lviv at Stadion Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 14 November 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Chornomorets have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chornomorets have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadion Chornomorets — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lviv — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lviv's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chornomorets at 0.60 PPG versus Lviv's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Chornomorets have won 0, Lviv 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Chornomorets in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Lviv in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 55% versus Lviv 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 62% | Lviv 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.80 xG and Lviv 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.659 / defence 1.390 | Lviv attack 0.729 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.220. Chornomorets's attack strength of 0.659 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Chornomorets games / 29 Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 24% | Draw 30% | Lviv 47%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Lviv 2.13. Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lviv at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 60% | Lviv 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Monday 14 Nov 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 24% | Draw 30% | Lviv 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Chornomorets 0.80 / Lviv 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.659 / def 1.390 | Lviv attack 0.729 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Lviv (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Lviv xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Lviv kick off?
Chornomorets vs Lviv kicked off at 12:00 on Monday 14 November 2022 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Lviv?
Chornomorets 2 - 0 Lviv.
Where is Chornomorets vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Lviv part of?
Chornomorets vs Lviv is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 24% chance of winning, Lviv a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Chornomorets and Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Lviv?
Record (1 meetings): Chornomorets 0W | Draws 1 | Lviv 0W.
What form are Chornomorets and Lviv in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Lviv (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chornomorets's attack rating (0.66) and Lviv's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lviv's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lviv Win
24%
4.19
30%
3.39
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.03
1.24
Lviv xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
7%
14.42
21%
4.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 16.2 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.24 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Chornomorets have picked up 0.69 PPG on a 4W 8D 17L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lviv's form line: 6W 8D 15L from 29 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chornomorets on 0.69 PPG, Lviv on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chornomorets have posted 0.71 PPG from 14 outings (2W 4D 8L).
On the road, Lviv have gone 4W 3D 7L from 14 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Chornomorets are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.79 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Lviv in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 4W 8D 17L in their last 29 games (0.69 PPG), while Lviv have gone 6W 8D 15L in their last 29 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Lviv away?
Lviv's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 0.71 PPG; Lviv away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chornomorets go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Chornomorets's record when hosting Lviv specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
1
Draws
0
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Lviv?
From 3 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, Lviv have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2023, when Lviv 0-1 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Lviv?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Lviv see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 57%, Lviv 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Chornomorets) and 29% (Lviv).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 43% of games; Lviv in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 36% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Chornomorets's recent games and 29% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Lviv tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Lviv in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chornomorets cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat Lviv 2-0 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.80 xG and Lviv 1.24 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Chornomorets beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lviv landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.66 / defence 1.39 against Lviv attack 0.73 / defence 0.94, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 24% | Draw 30% | Lviv 47%, with Lviv to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Chornomorets win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 62%, Lviv 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Lviv's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 0.69 PPG, Lviv 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chornomorets win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.