Chornomorets 0-2 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Chornomorets plays host to Chornomorets versus Dnipro-1 in Premier League (matchday 30). Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Chornomorets have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Chornomorets have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Dnipro-1's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dnipro-1's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Chornomorets, 1.10 for Dnipro-1 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Dnipro-1 have the stronger record — 5 wins to Chornomorets's 0, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Nov 2023, ended Chornomorets 2–5 Dnipro-1 — a Dnipro-1 win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Dnipro-1 have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Dnipro-1 half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 49% versus Dnipro-1 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 52% | Dnipro-1 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.12 xG and Dnipro-1 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 1.059 / defence 1.184 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.897 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.193. Data: built from Chornomorets's last 59 games and Dnipro-1's last 59.
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 33% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 40%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 3.08 | Draw 3.61 | Dnipro-1 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dnipro-1 at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Dnipro-1 5 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Chornomorets 50% (last 10 home games) | Dnipro-1 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 33% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Chornomorets 1.12 / Dnipro-1 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 1.059 / def 1.184 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.897 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Dnipro-1 xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 FAQs
What time does Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1?
Chornomorets 0 - 2 Dnipro-1.
Where is Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 is a Premier League fixture (matchday 30) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 33% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chornomorets's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (0.90x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Chornomorets's last 59 games and Dnipro-1's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
33%
3.08
28%
3.61
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.38
1.27
Dnipro-1 xG
3.08
33%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
9%
10.92
13%
7.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.27 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Chornomorets have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 19W 10D 30L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Dnipro-1's form line: 34W 14D 11L from 59 games, 1.97 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Dnipro-1 are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chornomorets.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chornomorets have posted 1.10 PPG from their last 29 home games (9W 5D 15L).
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 17W 7D 5L from their last 29 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chornomorets are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.68 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Current Season
Dnipro-1
Current Season
Chornomorets (Home) vs Dnipro-1 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chornomorets
Current Season
Dnipro-1
Current Season
❓ Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 Form FAQs
What form are Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 19W 10D 30L in their last 59 games (1.14 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 34W 14D 11L in their last 59 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.10 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Dnipro-1 have won the most recent 6 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dnipro-1 won Chornomorets 0-3 Dnipro-1 on 31 Jul 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Chornomorets
0
Draws
6
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Dnipro-1?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Chornomorets have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 May 2024: Chornomorets 0-2 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 41%, Dnipro-1 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Chornomorets) and 45% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 41%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 48% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Chornomorets's recent games and 45% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 69% of Dnipro-1's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dnipro-1 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Chornomorets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Chornomorets 0-2 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.12 xG and Dnipro-1 1.27 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Chornomorets fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 1.06 / defence 1.18 against Dnipro-1 attack 0.90 / defence 0.81, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 33% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 40%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 52%, Dnipro-1 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.