FC Kharkiv 1-2 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Veres Rivne travel to Stadion Livyi Bereh to take on FC Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 May 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Kharkiv stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Livyi Bereh this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Veres Rivne — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (FC Kharkiv) versus 1.20 (Veres Rivne). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Veres Rivne have the better historical record — 4 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for FC Kharkiv.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 3–4 with Veres Rivne winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Veres Rivne have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Veres Rivne in-play and half-time data (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 46% versus Veres Rivne 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 46% | Veres Rivne 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.75 xG and Veres Rivne 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 1.191 / defence 1.484 | Veres Rivne attack 0.731 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.193. Data: 59 FC Kharkiv games / 59 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 48% | Draw 23% | Veres Rivne 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Veres Rivne 3.57. FC Kharkiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Kharkiv are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 90% | Veres Rivne 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 48% | Draw 23% | Veres Rivne 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.75 / Veres Rivne 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 1.191 / def 1.484 | Veres Rivne attack 0.731 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Veres Rivne xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne?
FC Kharkiv 1 - 2 Veres Rivne.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 48% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne?
Record (4 meetings): FC Kharkiv 0W | Draws 0 | Veres Rivne 4W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (1.19) and Veres Rivne's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
48%
2.08
23%
4.26
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
3.04
1.29
Veres Rivne xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
5%
20.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.29 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, FC Kharkiv have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 11W 22D 26L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Veres Rivne's form line: 12W 17D 30L from 59 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Kharkiv on 0.93 PPG, Veres Rivne on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Kharkiv have posted 1.18 PPG from 28 outings (8W 9D 11L).
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 4W 7D 17L from 28 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.14 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Current Season
Veres Rivne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 11W 22D 26L in their last 59 games (0.93 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 12W 17D 30L in their last 59 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Veres Rivne away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.18 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Kharkiv have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Kharkiv won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Veres Rivne specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
FC Kharkiv
0
Draws
5
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 3, Veres Rivne have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 57%, Veres Rivne 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (FC Kharkiv) and 36% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 32% of games; Veres Rivne in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 39% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 36% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Veres Rivne defy the odds to beat FC Kharkiv 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat FC Kharkiv 1-2 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.75 xG and Veres Rivne 1.29 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 1.19 / defence 1.48 against Veres Rivne attack 0.73 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 48% | Draw 23% | Veres Rivne 28%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Veres Rivne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 46%, Veres Rivne 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 0.93 PPG, Veres Rivne 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Veres Rivne win broke the near-deadlock. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.