Chornomorets 0-1 Desna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Desna at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Desna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Desna travel to Stadion Chornomorets to take on Chornomorets. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chornomorets — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets at Stadion Chornomorets this season: 1W 3D 4L from 8 home games — 0.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Desna have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Desna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Desna's away record: 2W 2D 3L from 7 road trips in Premier League this season (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Chornomorets 0.80 PPG, Desna 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Chornomorets, 1 for Desna and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2021, ended 0–3 with Desna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chornomorets in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Desna in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 60% versus Desna 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 73% | Desna 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.40 xG and Desna 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.988 / defence 1.817 | Desna attack 0.794 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.239. Desna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing Chornomorets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Chornomorets games / 15 Desna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 30% | Draw 24% | Desna 46%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Desna 2.17. Desna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Desna as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Desna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Chornomorets 62% | Desna 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Desna | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 30% | Draw 24% | Desna 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Chornomorets 1.40 / Desna 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.988 / def 1.817 | Desna attack 0.794 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Desna (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Desna xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Desna kick off?
Chornomorets vs Desna kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Desna?
Chornomorets 0 - 1 Desna.
Where is Chornomorets vs Desna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Desna part of?
Chornomorets vs Desna is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Desna?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 30% chance of winning, Desna a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Desna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Desna?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Chornomorets and Desna will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Desna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Desna?
Record (1 meetings): Chornomorets 0W | Draws 0 | Desna 1W.
What form are Chornomorets and Desna in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Desna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.99x the league average against Desna's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Desna's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Desna Win
30%
3.34
24%
4.19
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
3.19
1.79
Desna xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
17%
5.98
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
5%
19.99
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Desna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Desna expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.79 for Desna, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Desna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chornomorets come into this having played 15 games, going 2W 5D 8L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Desna sit at 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Desna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Desna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chornomorets's home form reads 1W 3D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Desna have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Chornomorets are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Desna are on 1.13 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Desna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Desna in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 2W 5D 8L in their last 15 games (0.73 PPG), while Desna have gone 6W 3D 6L in their last 15 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Desna away?
Desna's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 0.86 PPG; Desna away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Desna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Desna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chornomorets and Desna runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chornomorets
0
Draws
2
Desna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Desna?
From 2 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 0, Desna have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Desna last play each other?
They last met on 27 November 2021, when Chornomorets 0-1 Desna.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Desna?
Desna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Desna see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 71%, Desna 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Chornomorets) and 57% (Desna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 29% of games; Desna in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Desna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Desna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Chornomorets's games and 43% of Desna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chornomorets vs Desna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Chornomorets's matches and 57% of Desna's.
Do Chornomorets and Desna tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Desna in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Desna edge out Chornomorets 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Desna beat Chornomorets 0-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.40 xG and Desna 1.79 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chornomorets fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.99 / defence 1.82 against Desna attack 0.79 / defence 1.31, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 30% | Draw 24% | Desna 46%, with Desna to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 73%, Desna 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Desna's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Desna arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.73. Form held, and they took the win. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line. Desna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.