Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Uthai Thani welcome Sisaket United to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Uthai Thani's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sisaket United have recorded 2W 1D 2L from 5 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sisaket United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Uthai Thani) versus 1.40 (Sisaket United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Uthai Thani in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Sisaket United in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 100% and Sisaket United 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 80% | Sisaket United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.81 xG and Sisaket United 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.119 / defence 1.111 | Sisaket United attack 0.823 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.292. Data: 35 Uthai Thani games / 5 Sisaket United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 51% | Draw 25% | Sisaket United 24%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Sisaket United 4.17. Uthai Thani hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 50% | Sisaket United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 51% | Draw 25% | Sisaket United 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Uthai Thani 1.81 / Sisaket United 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 1.119 / def 1.111 | Sisaket United attack 0.823 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Sisaket United xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 27 November 2026 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United part of?
Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 51% chance of winning, Sisaket United a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Uthai Thani and Sisaket United will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Sisaket United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Uthai Thani and Sisaket United in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Sisaket United (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Uthai Thani's attack at 1.12x the league average against Sisaket United's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sisaket United's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
51%
1.95
25%
4.06
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.99
1.18
Sisaket United xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
4%
25.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Sisaket United expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.18 for Sisaket United, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Uthai Thani's recent record stands at 3W 1D 1L from 5 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sisaket United, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 2L across 5 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sisaket United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Uthai Thani by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sisaket United heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Uthai Thani are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Sisaket United are on 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Sisaket United in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Sisaket United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Sisaket United in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Sisaket United have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sisaket United see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Uthai Thani at 100%, Sisaket United at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Uthai Thani and 40% for Sisaket United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Sisaket United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Sisaket United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Uthai Thani's games and 60% of Sisaket United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Uthai Thani's matches and 40% of Sisaket United's.
Do Uthai Thani and Sisaket United tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sisaket United in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.