Uthai Thani 0-0 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Uthai Thani (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Uthai Thani face Khon Kaen United.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Uthai Thani Province Stadium plays host to Uthai Thani versus Khon Kaen United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Uthai Thani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani's home record at Uthai Thani Province Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Khon Kaen United (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 3.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khon Kaen United away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Uthai Thani's favour (1.30 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Uthai Thani lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Uthai Thani winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Uthai Thani half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Khon Kaen United half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 55% versus Khon Kaen United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 57% | Khon Kaen United 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 2.51 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.018 / defence 0.896 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.779 / defence 1.457. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.214. Khon Kaen United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.457 — this is suppressing Uthai Thani's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Uthai Thani games / 51 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 73% | Draw 17% | Khon Kaen United 10%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | Khon Kaen United 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Uthai Thani (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Uthai Thani at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Uthai Thani 50% | Khon Kaen United 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 73% | Draw 17% | Khon Kaen United 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 53% | xG Uthai Thani 2.51 / Khon Kaen United 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 1.018 / def 0.896 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.779 / def 1.457 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Khon Kaen United xG
53%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Khon Kaen United?
Uthai Thani 0 - 0 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Uthai Thani vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 73% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Uthai Thani and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Khon Kaen United?
Record (3 meetings): Uthai Thani 2W | Draws 1 | Khon Kaen United 0W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Khon Kaen United in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 3.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Uthai Thani's attack at 1.02x the league average against Khon Kaen United's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 2.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Khon Kaen United's attack (0.78x) against Uthai Thani's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
73%
1.37
17%
5.91
10%
10.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
3 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
3.36
0.85
Khon Kaen United xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.91
17%
Draw
10.00
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
8%
12.33
Win to Nil
31%
3.19
1%
123.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 0.85 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Khon Kaen United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Uthai Thani's recent record stands at 17W 12D 22L from 51 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khon Kaen United, meanwhile, have gone 10W 15D 26L across 51 games — 0.88 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Uthai Thani against 0.88 for Khon Kaen United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Uthai Thani have managed 9W 8D 7L from 24 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khon Kaen United's away record stands at 5W 2D 17L across 24 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 1.08 scored and 2.04 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Khon Kaen United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 17W 12D 22L in their last 51 games (1.24 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 10W 15D 26L in their last 51 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.46 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Uthai Thani have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Khon Kaen United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Uthai Thani
2
Draws
0
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Khon Kaen United?
From 4 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 2, Khon Kaen United have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Uthai Thani 0-0 Khon Kaen United.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Khon Kaen United?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 58%, Khon Kaen United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Uthai Thani) and 62% (Khon Kaen United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Khon Kaen United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Uthai Thani's recent matches and 50% of Khon Kaen United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Uthai Thani vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Uthai Thani's matches and 62% of Khon Kaen United's.
Do Uthai Thani and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Uthai Thani's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Uthai Thani and Khon Kaen United drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 2.51 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.85 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Uthai Thani fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Khon Kaen United landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.02 / defence 0.90 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.78 / defence 1.46, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 73% | Draw 17% | Khon Kaen United 10%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 57%, Khon Kaen United 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.24 PPG, Khon Kaen United 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.