Sukhothai FC 1-0 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 42%, yet in-form Port FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sukhothai FC vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sukhothai FC and Port FC meet at Thalay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 August 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Thalay Luang Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thalay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Port FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Port FC arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Port FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sukhothai FC lead 2W to 4W over the last 6 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2025, ended 3–2 with Sukhothai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Port FC — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sukhothai FC 64% and Port FC 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 61% | Port FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.68 xG and Port FC 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.022 / defence 1.050 | Port FC attack 1.025 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.368. Data: 31 Sukhothai FC games / 31 Port FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 42% | Draw 26% | Port FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Port FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sukhothai FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Port FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 80% | Port FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 42% | Draw 26% | Port FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.68 / Port FC 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 1.022 / def 1.050 | Port FC attack 1.025 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Port FC xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Port FC kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Port FC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Sukhothai FC 1 - 0 Port FC.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Port FC part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 42% chance of winning, Port FC a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Port FC?
Record (6 meetings): Sukhothai FC 2W | Draws 0 | Port FC 4W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Port FC in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Port FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 1.02x the league average against Port FC's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (1.02x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
42%
2.41
26%
3.84
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
3.16
1.47
Port FC xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
10%
10.50
6%
16.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.47 for Port FC, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sukhothai FC's recent record stands at 9W 9D 13L from 31 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 8L across 31 games — 1.65 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sukhothai FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sukhothai FC have managed 8W 2D 5L from 15 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Port FC's away record stands at 6W 4D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.77 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Port FC in 71%.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Port FC in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 9W 9D 13L in their last 31 games (1.16 PPG), while Port FC have gone 14W 9D 8L in their last 31 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Port FC away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.73 PPG; Port FC away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-0 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sukhothai FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sukhothai FC
0
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Port FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 3, Port FC have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Port FC 5-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Sukhothai FC, 67% for Port FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Sukhothai FC and 60% for Port FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Port FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sukhothai FC's games and 67% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 60% of Port FC's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Port FC tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Port FC in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sukhothai FC edge out Port FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Port FC 1-0 at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.68 xG and Port FC 1.47 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Port FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.05 against Port FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.97, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 42% | Draw 26% | Port FC 32%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 61%, Port FC 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Port FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Sukhothai FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.