Sukhothai FC 3-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sukhothai FC and Port FC meet at Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Monday 20 January 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Thung Talay Luang Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
Port FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Port FC have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Sukhothai FC's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2024, ended 1–4 with Port FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Port FC have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Port FC — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sukhothai FC 60% and Port FC 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 64% | Port FC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.62 xG and Port FC 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.066 / defence 0.982 | Port FC attack 0.963 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.143. Data: 47 Sukhothai FC games / 47 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 49% | Draw 27% | Port FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Port FC 4.17. Sukhothai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sukhothai FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 40% | Port FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 20 Jan 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 49% | Draw 27% | Port FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.62 / Port FC 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 1.066 / def 0.982 | Port FC attack 0.963 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Port FC xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Port FC kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Port FC kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 20 January 2025 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Sukhothai FC 3 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Port FC part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 49% chance of winning, Port FC a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Port FC?
Record (5 meetings): Sukhothai FC 1W | Draws 0 | Port FC 4W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Port FC in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Port FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 1.07x the league average against Port FC's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (0.96x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.68
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.70
1.08
Port FC xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
5%
20.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.08 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sukhothai FC's recent record stands at 16W 9D 22L from 47 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 24W 14D 9L across 47 games — 1.83 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sukhothai FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sukhothai FC have managed 13W 2D 8L from 23 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Port FC's away record stands at 8W 11D 4L across 23 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.15 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 70%.
Last 47 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Port FC in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 16W 9D 22L in their last 47 games (1.21 PPG), while Port FC have gone 24W 14D 9L in their last 47 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Port FC away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.78 PPG; Port FC away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-0 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sukhothai FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sukhothai FC
0
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Port FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 3, Port FC have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Port FC 5-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 52%, Port FC 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Sukhothai FC and 61% for Port FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sukhothai FC's games and 74% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 61% of Port FC's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Port FC tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Port FC in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sukhothai FC edge out Port FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Port FC 3-2 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.62 xG and Port FC 1.08 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sukhothai FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Port FC outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.98 against Port FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.87, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 49% | Draw 27% | Port FC 24%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 64%, Port FC 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Sukhothai FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Port FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.