Ratchaburi 1-0 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ratchaburi and Muangthong United meet at Ratchaburi Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 January 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ratchaburi have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ratchaburi Stadium, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ratchaburi Stadium.
Muangthong United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Muangthong United have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Ratchaburi, 1.50 for Muangthong United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Muangthong United hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Muangthong United winning.
It is worth noting that Muangthong United have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Muangthong United — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 50% versus Muangthong United 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 54% | Muangthong United 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.59 xG and Muangthong United 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.101 / defence 0.952 | Muangthong United attack 1.265 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.150. Muangthong United have an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Ratchaburi games / 46 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 41% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 32%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Muangthong United 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 50% | Muangthong United 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Ratchaburi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 41% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Ratchaburi 1.59 / Muangthong United 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.101 / def 0.952 | Muangthong United attack 1.265 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Muangthong United xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Ratchaburi Stadium.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United?
Ratchaburi 1 - 0 Muangthong United.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Ratchaburi Stadium.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 41% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ratchaburi and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Muangthong United?
Record (7 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 1 | Muangthong United 5W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Muangthong United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Muangthong United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 1.10x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Muangthong United's attack (1.26x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
41%
2.45
27%
3.65
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.98
1.39
Muangthong United xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
6%
15.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.39 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 18W 10D 18L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Muangthong United's form line: 23W 9D 14L from 46 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Ratchaburi against 1.70 for Muangthong United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 1.82 PPG from 22 outings (12W 4D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Ratchaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Muangthong United have gone 7W 5D 10L from 22 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.96 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 18W 10D 18L in their last 46 games (1.39 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 23W 9D 14L in their last 46 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Muangthong United away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.82 PPG; Muangthong United away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Muangthong United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Muangthong United in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Ratchaburi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Muangthong United won 4-0 on 12 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Muangthong United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
1
Draws
5
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Muangthong United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Muangthong United have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 3-2 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 54% for Ratchaburi, 77% for Muangthong United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Ratchaburi and 68% for Muangthong United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Muangthong United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Ratchaburi's games and 77% of Muangthong United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Ratchaburi's matches and 68% of Muangthong United's.
Do Ratchaburi and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Muangthong United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Muangthong United 1-0 at Ratchaburi Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.59 xG and Muangthong United 1.39 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Muangthong United landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.10 / defence 0.95 against Muangthong United attack 1.26 / defence 0.87, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 41% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 32%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 54%, Muangthong United 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Muangthong United's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.39 PPG, Muangthong United 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.