BG Pathum United 1-2 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BG Pathum United at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Ratchaburi travel to BG Stadium to take on BG Pathum United. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 15 January 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, BG Pathum United have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BG Pathum United's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at BG Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ratchaburi — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ratchaburi have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (BG Pathum United) versus 1.70 (Ratchaburi). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for BG Pathum United, 2 for Ratchaburi and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 1–4 with Ratchaburi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
BG Pathum United trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Ratchaburi trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 65% versus Ratchaburi 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 56% | Ratchaburi 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.85 xG and Ratchaburi 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 0.901 / defence 0.893 | Ratchaburi attack 1.019 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.184. Ratchaburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing BG Pathum United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 BG Pathum United games / 46 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 54% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 21%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Ratchaburi 4.76. BG Pathum United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BG Pathum United are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: BG Pathum United 60% | Ratchaburi 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: BG Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Jan 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 54% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG BG Pathum United 1.85 / Ratchaburi 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 0.901 / def 0.893 | Ratchaburi attack 1.019 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Ratchaburi xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 15 January 2025 at BG Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
BG Pathum United 1 - 2 Ratchaburi.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at BG Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi part of?
BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 54% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi?
Record (7 meetings): BG Pathum United 4W | Draws 1 | Ratchaburi 2W.
What form are BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Ratchaburi (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from BG Pathum United's attack rating (0.90) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus BG Pathum United's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
54%
1.85
25%
3.92
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
2.92
1.08
Ratchaburi xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
3%
30.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 1.08 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, BG Pathum United have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 22W 14D 10L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi's form line: 17W 10D 19L from 46 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, BG Pathum United are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ratchaburi.
Venue Form
On home soil, BG Pathum United have posted 1.91 PPG from 22 outings (12W 6D 4L).
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 4W 6D 12L from 22 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BG Pathum United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.43 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BG Pathum United have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 22W 14D 10L in their last 46 games (1.74 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 17W 10D 19L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Ratchaburi away?
BG Pathum United's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 1.91 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.82 PPG.
Have BG Pathum United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BG Pathum United's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BG Pathum United
3
Draws
3
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when BG Pathum United 2-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BG Pathum United 64%, Ratchaburi 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (BG Pathum United) and 41% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 41% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of BG Pathum United's recent games and 41% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ratchaburi defy the odds to beat BG Pathum United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat BG Pathum United 1-2 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.85 xG and Ratchaburi 1.08 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. BG Pathum United fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 0.90 / defence 0.89 against Ratchaburi attack 1.02 / defence 1.27, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 54% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 21%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Ratchaburi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 56%, Ratchaburi 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Ratchaburi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.