Ratchaburi 5-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior meet at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 October 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi at Dragon Solar Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lamphun Warrior have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Ratchaburi's 2.20 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Lamphun Warrior's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ratchaburi lead 2W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 57% versus Lamphun Warrior 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 54% | Lamphun Warrior 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.47 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.811 / defence 0.887 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.930 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.191. Data: 37 Ratchaburi games / 37 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 47% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 23%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Lamphun Warrior 4.35. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 50% | Lamphun Warrior 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 47% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Ratchaburi 1.47 / Lamphun Warrior 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.811 / def 0.887 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.930 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Lamphun Warrior xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Ratchaburi 5 - 0 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 47% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (6 meetings): Ratchaburi 2W | Draws 3 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.93x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
47%
2.14
30%
3.36
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.45
0.98
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
5%
18.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.98 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 19W 8D 10L from 37 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 10W 13D 14L across 37 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ratchaburi by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamphun Warrior heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 10W 5D 3L from 18 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 3W 6D 9L across 18 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.27 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 19W 8D 10L in their last 37 games (1.76 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 10W 13D 14L in their last 37 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.94 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 5-0 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 56%, Lamphun Warrior 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ratchaburi) and 50% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Ratchaburi's games and 56% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 50% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ratchaburi run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Lamphun Warrior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Lamphun Warrior 5-0 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.47 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.98 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lamphun Warrior landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.81 / defence 0.89 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 47% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 23%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 54%, Lamphun Warrior 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.