Prachuap 0-0 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sam Ao Stadium plays host to Prachuap versus Sukhothai FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 31 August 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Prachuap have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Prachuap, 1.00 for Sukhothai FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Prachuap 3W, Sukhothai FC 2W, 1D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 53% versus Sukhothai FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 56% | Sukhothai FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.81 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.102 / defence 1.052 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.866 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.429. Data: 32 Prachuap games / 32 Sukhothai FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Prachuap 48% | Draw 25% | Sukhothai FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Sukhothai FC 3.85. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Prachuap if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 70% | Sukhothai FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 48% | Draw 25% | Sukhothai FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Prachuap 1.81 / Sukhothai FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.102 / def 1.052 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.866 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Sukhothai FC xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Prachuap 0 - 0 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 48% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Prachuap and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Sukhothai FC?
Record (6 meetings): Prachuap 3W | Draws 1 | Sukhothai FC 2W.
What form are Prachuap and Sukhothai FC in?
Prachuap (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (1.10) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.87x) against Prachuap's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
48%
2.07
25%
3.95
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Prachuap xG
Total xG
3.11
1.30
Sukhothai FC xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
4%
23.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.30 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Prachuap come into this having played 32 games, going 12W 9D 11L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.22 PPG from 32 outings (10W 9D 13L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Prachuap against 1.22 for Sukhothai FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Prachuap's home form reads 9W 5D 2L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.62 points per game from 16 outings (1W 7D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Prachuap are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 12W 9D 11L in their last 32 games (1.41 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Prachuap's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 2.00 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Prachuap won 0-3 on 14 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Prachuap
3
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 3, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Sukhothai FC 0-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Sukhothai FC?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 50%, Sukhothai FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Prachuap) and 50% (Sukhothai FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sukhothai FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Prachuap's games and 62% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Prachuap's matches and 50% of Sukhothai FC's.
Do Prachuap and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Prachuap's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Prachuap and Sukhothai FC drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.81 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.30 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Prachuap fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Sukhothai FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.10 / defence 1.05 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.99, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 48% | Draw 25% | Sukhothai FC 26%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 56%, Sukhothai FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.41 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.