Prachuap 0-0 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Prachuap take on Bangkok United.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Prachuap welcome Bangkok United to Sam Ao Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 22 March 2026 at 11:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Prachuap stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Prachuap have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Bangkok United have recorded 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Bangkok United have posted 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Prachuap 1.70 PPG, Bangkok United 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Prachuap have won 2, Bangkok United 4, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Prachuap 1–4 Bangkok United — a Bangkok United win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Prachuap in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Bangkok United in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 83%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 54% versus Bangkok United 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 44% | Bangkok United 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Prachuap surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Bangkok United have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 83% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.11 xG and Bangkok United 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.121 / defence 0.957 | Bangkok United attack 0.956 / defence 0.682. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.132. Bangkok United bring a tight defence (rating 0.682, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Prachuap's projected output down. Data: built from Prachuap's last 54 games and Bangkok United's last 52.
Result probabilities: Prachuap 34% | Draw 35% | Bangkok United 31%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.91 | Draw 2.85 | Bangkok United 3.27. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Prachuap 50% (last 10 home games) | Bangkok United 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 26 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 34% | Draw 35% | Bangkok United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Prachuap 1.11 / Bangkok United 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.121 / def 0.957 | Bangkok United attack 0.956 / def 0.682 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Bangkok United xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Prachuap vs Bangkok United FAQs
What time does Prachuap vs Bangkok United kick off?
Prachuap vs Bangkok United kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Bangkok United?
Prachuap 0 - 0 Bangkok United.
Where is Prachuap vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Bangkok United part of?
Prachuap vs Bangkok United is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 26) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 34% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Prachuap and Bangkok United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Prachuap vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (1.12) and Bangkok United's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bangkok United's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Prachuap's last 54 games and Bangkok United's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
35%
2.85
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.15
1.03
Bangkok United xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
10%
9.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Prachuap vs Bangkok United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.03 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Bangkok United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Prachuap have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 19W 19D 14L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Bangkok United's form line: 32W 14D 6L from 52 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Prachuap.
Venue Form
On home soil, Prachuap have posted 1.92 PPG from their last 25 home games (13W 9D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 14W 7D 4L from their last 25 away games — 1.96 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Prachuap are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.87 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Bangkok United in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
Prachuap (Home) vs Bangkok United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Prachuap
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
❓ Prachuap vs Bangkok United Form FAQs
What form are Prachuap and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 19W 19D 14L in their last 52 games (1.46 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 32W 14D 6L in their last 52 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Bangkok United away?
Bangkok United's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.92 PPG; Bangkok United away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Nov 2025, when Bangkok United won Bangkok United 4-1 Prachuap.
Prachuap's record when hosting Bangkok United specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Prachuap
4
Draws
4
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Prachuap vs Bangkok United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Bangkok United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Prachuap have won 2, Bangkok United have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Bangkok United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Prachuap 0-0 Bangkok United.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 52%, Bangkok United 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Prachuap) and 48% (Bangkok United).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Bangkok United in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Prachuap vs Bangkok United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Prachuap and Bangkok United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Prachuap's recent matches and 48% of Bangkok United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Prachuap and Bangkok United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Prachuap's recent games and 48% of Bangkok United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Bangkok United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Prachuap's recent matches and 64% of Bangkok United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Prachuap's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap and Bangkok United finished level at 0-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.11 xG and Bangkok United 1.03 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Prachuap fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Bangkok United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.12 / defence 0.96 against Bangkok United attack 0.96 / defence 0.68, drawn from 54/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 34% | Draw 35% | Bangkok United 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 44%, Bangkok United 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bangkok United's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.