BG Pathum United 2-2 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Ratchaburi travel to BG Stadium to take on BG Pathum United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, BG Pathum United have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BG Pathum United's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at BG Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ratchaburi — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ratchaburi have posted 7W 0D 3L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (BG Pathum United) versus 1.90 (Ratchaburi). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. BG Pathum United register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ratchaburi in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for BG Pathum United, 3 for Ratchaburi and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
BG Pathum United trading profile (52 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi trading profile (52 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 58% versus Ratchaburi 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 50% | Ratchaburi 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.57 xG and Ratchaburi 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 1.118 / defence 1.158 | Ratchaburi attack 1.287 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.132. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 BG Pathum United games / 52 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 34% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 39%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Ratchaburi 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: BG Pathum United 60% | Ratchaburi 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: BG Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 34% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 67% | xG BG Pathum United 1.57 / Ratchaburi 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 1.118 / def 1.158 | Ratchaburi attack 1.287 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Ratchaburi xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at BG Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
BG Pathum United 2 - 2 Ratchaburi.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at BG Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi part of?
BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 34% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi?
Record (9 meetings): BG Pathum United 4W | Draws 2 | Ratchaburi 3W.
What form are BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from BG Pathum United's attack rating (1.12) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus BG Pathum United's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
34%
2.95
27%
3.66
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
3.25
1.69
Ratchaburi xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
6%
15.95
8%
12.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 1.69 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, BG Pathum United have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 25W 15D 12L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi's form line: 28W 10D 14L from 52 games, 1.81 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BG Pathum United on 1.73 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, BG Pathum United have posted 2.12 PPG from 24 outings (16W 3D 5L).
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 12W 3D 9L from 24 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BG Pathum United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.94 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 25W 15D 12L in their last 52 games (1.73 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 28W 10D 14L in their last 52 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Ratchaburi away?
BG Pathum United's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 2.12 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.62 PPG.
Have BG Pathum United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BG Pathum United's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BG Pathum United
3
Draws
3
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when BG Pathum United 2-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BG Pathum United 50%, Ratchaburi 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (BG Pathum United) and 62% (Ratchaburi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of BG Pathum United's games and 62% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of BG Pathum United's matches and 62% of Ratchaburi's.
Do BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.57 xG and Ratchaburi 1.69 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.12 / defence 1.16 against Ratchaburi attack 1.29 / defence 0.97, drawn from 54/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 34% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 39%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 50%, Ratchaburi 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (52 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (52 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BG Pathum United 1.73 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.