Port FC 5-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Chiangrai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Chiangrai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Monday 19 August 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Port FC (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Port FC have posted 7W 1D 2L at PAT Stadium — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Port FC. A 0.80 PPG lead over Chiangrai United (1.90 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Port FC 2W, Chiangrai United 1W, 3D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Chiangrai United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 71% and Chiangrai United 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 71% | Chiangrai United 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.81 xG and Chiangrai United 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.194 / defence 0.950 | Chiangrai United attack 0.887 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.283. Data: 31 Port FC games / 31 Chiangrai United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Port FC 55% | Draw 23% | Chiangrai United 22%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Chiangrai United 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 50% | Chiangrai United 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 19 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 55% | Draw 23% | Chiangrai United 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Port FC 1.81 / Chiangrai United 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.194 / def 0.950 | Chiangrai United attack 0.887 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Port FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Chiangrai United xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Port FC vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 19 August 2024 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Port FC 5 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Port FC vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Chiangrai United part of?
Port FC vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 55% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Port FC and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chiangrai United?
Record (6 meetings): Port FC 2W | Draws 3 | Chiangrai United 1W.
What form are Port FC and Chiangrai United in?
Port FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Chiangrai United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.19) and Chiangrai United's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (0.89x) against Port FC's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
55%
1.83
23%
4.34
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.89
1.08
Chiangrai United xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
4%
27.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Port FC and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Port FC and 1.08 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port FC come into this having played 31 games, going 17W 9D 5L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.19 PPG from 31 outings (9W 10D 12L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Port FC's home form reads 11W 1D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 0.93 points per game from 15 outings (3W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 2.42 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.06 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 17W 9D 5L in their last 31 games (1.94 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 9W 10D 12L in their last 31 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Chiangrai United away?
Port FC's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.27 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Port FC or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 0-4 on 14 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Port FC
4
Draws
2
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Chiangrai United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Chiangrai United?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 60%, Chiangrai United 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Port FC and 53% for Chiangrai United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 7% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Port FC's games and 53% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Port FC's matches and 53% of Chiangrai United's.
Do Port FC and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port FC run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Chiangrai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Chiangrai United 5-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.81 xG and Chiangrai United 1.08 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.95 against Chiangrai United attack 0.89 / defence 0.89, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 55% | Draw 23% | Chiangrai United 22%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 71%, Chiangrai United 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.80 average — above their attacking norm. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.